industry direction

[ItsHot]

With another new year around the corner I was curious to ask, Where do you see our industry heading? Such as "What major changes do you think we'll see"?

[Krim]

With another new year around the corner I was curious to ask, Where do you see our industry heading? Such as "What major changes do you think we'll see"?

I think we're going to see more people looking into solar power for the home and hopefully the prices will come down as this technology improves.
I also hope that since the NEC is requiring safer practices in the home such as the tamper resistant receptacles,now mandatory in residential properties,that the cost of such items will decrease some too.Of course there is the supply & demand theory that will have a dramatic effect in this taking place in regards to the manufacturers' of said products.
Looking at the economy, it doesn't look as though there will be another huge new construction boom this year or a hike in the cost of living wages.
But that's just my view on matters and perhaps I'll be wrong once again.
Carl :)

[Pierre C Belarge]

This is a new NEC code cycle year for a lot of jurisdictions...
Also for local jurisdictions adopting their own codes with reference to the NEC.

Also, I think that due to the economy we will see many contractors tightening their belts.

[Rewire]

I think things will be fine until November and then it is a matter of who is in charge in Washington.

[Krim]

I think things will be fine until November and then it is a matter of who is in charge in Washington.

It's not looking too good right now for next year either than.
Carl :confused:

[ItsHot]

I think things will be fine until November and then it is a matter of who is in charge in Washington. I would hope the people (us) would remember that our government originally was "for the people, by the people"! I think they have forgotten that they work for us!

[Krim]

I would hope the people (us) would remember that our government originally was "for the people, by the people"! I think they have forgotten that they work for us!

Keyword being was , do you honestly believe we still have a final say to whom is put into the position by the government ?
Like they've always said " It's not what you know,so much as Who you know, and money speaks just as loud and clear in Washington as it does anywhere".
Carl

[growler]

I would hope the people (us) would remember that our government originally was "for the people, by the people"! I think they have forgotten that they work for us!

That was the original concept and I think it lasted for about 2 years 1789 to 1791 and then Washington sent troops to put down the "whiskey boys" and the "Whiskey Rebellion". After that everyone knew who was in charge and who works for whom. :grin: :grin:

[mikeames]

Its amazing how many world leaders from other countries hold engineering and technical degrees. They are technically aware and literate. Here in the US we have a bunch of lawyers, and politicians who are experts at deception, and care nothing about anything except themselves.

[Krim]

Its amazing how many world leaders from other countries hold engineering and technical degrees. They are technically aware and literate. Here in the US we have a bunch of lawyers, and politicians who are experts at deception, and care nothing about anything except themselves.

Oh how true .... Amen on that brother .
Carl :grin:

[peter d]

Economically speaking, this may be a tough year for a lot of people if things keep going the way they are.

As an industry, I think the biggest problem is that we have many electricians who just do what they do because they've been taught a certain way, and have no idea why. Many electricians are ignorant of the most basic principles.

[kkwong]

Not only are they ignorant of the basic priniples, but I've seen helpers and even some apprentices make serious errors in the make up of panels and even simple devices.

I think the next few months will tell the tale for the industry. I think some areas will see a small increase in commercial service work while others will not see anything but small residential work. I also see "handymen" doing work that should be ours but they will get it because of the price difference.

[dereckbc]

Warning keep on topic, and away from politcs.;)

[Rockyd]

The industry direction seems to be leaning towards foreign logic (zones for classificd spaces) and more cable vs pipe. Bothers that me that we are excepting following, rather than leading. If Sam adams knew what was going on today, he'd roll over in his grave, or better yet make us aware of his famous speech -

" If you love wealth more than liberty, the tranquility of servitude better than the animating contest of freedom, go home from us in peace. We ask not your counsels or arms. Crouch down and lick the hands that which feed you. May your chain be set lightly upon you and posterity forget ye were our countrymen."

For whole speech go here (http://www.bartleby.com/268/8/18.html)...

[khixxx]

Warning keep on topic, and away from politcs.;)

To bad you need to speak of politics when dealing with an economy.

With the credit crunch I see some guys going out of business. Residential will get hit hard.

As the dollar weakens industrial will pick up some.

Watch for the Nuclear industry to take off.

[George Stolz]

To bad you need to speak of politics when dealing with an economy.
If the discussion can't take place without politics, then it can go unspoken entirely.

I repeat, do not bring politics into this discussion.

[ItsHot]

Sorry George I did not mean for this to go this way in posting the question. But at the same time ,took the bait and helped steer it that way. So my original thoughts were about technology, raising our rates, continued education.labor, material cost, job security, demand for our work,etc.,etc. thanks!!

[jrock0305]

on my end industrial,food, manufacturing i see a lot going towards power quality and correction-its amazing best of luck to everyone in the new year

[mdshunk]

Two areas I see growth potential in are related to the aging infrastructure.
cable splicing safety inspections

Two areas that I see growth potential in are related to the aging electrical workforce.
safety training electrical education

Two areas that I see growth potential in are related to increasing energy prices.
solar installations lighting automation and control

Two areas that I see growth potential in are are related to homeland security:
security cabling government contracting, in general.

[dereckbc]

Good post Marc. What I would like to add is stay on top of things, learn as much as you can with continuing education; stay educated as technology will leave you behind. :cool:

One real easy thing for some of you is LV and IT wiring. It requires a little more attention to detail, but with home automation, data, CATV, etc used in today's modern residential and commercial; it is a good selling point to have in your tool bag, rather than to leave it to Geek Squad to beat you out of a bid.

[mdshunk]

Good post Marc. What I would like to add is stay on top of things, ...:
I agree. I read eariler, with much displeasure, how some guys no longer read our trade magazines because of the perceived manufacturer "pollution" of the trade literature. Well, that's exactly why you should read the trade mags. Like it or not, the manufacturer's largely drive our industry. Know what they're up to, and you'll be on the cutting edge too.

[GUNNING]

I see handymen and general contractors doing all residential electric work. I see a large slowdown in demand for larger electrical usage. There will be more retrofitting of devices to low wattage devices and more demands for complicated devices put in panels which the government wont enforce because the contractors associations will shoot em down because of cost. There wont be as much Government work because the dollar will shrink and budgets will too. Currently there is a 10% retainage on government contracts for ... administration? Even they don't want to pay a real price for real work. Nuclear plants? It takes 10 years to get them permitted. What will the future of our industry be? A giant Government Boondoggle into oblivion.

Yes, I have my aluminum hat on, its made out of beer cans. I'm eco friendly

[dereckbc]

I agree. I read eariler, with much displeasure, how some guys no longer read our trade magazines because of the perceived manufacturer "pollution" of the trade literature. Well, that's exactly why you should read the trade mags. Like it or not, the manufacturer's largely drive our industry. Know what they're up to, and you'll be on the cutting edge too.

I mildly disagree with that position because I believe the market is driven by demand. Ok that's my political statement :rolleyes: The manufactures are trying to find their market by what they believe there is demand for. Therefore they are doing what they have to do; sell it to you.

However keeping up with industry trends via Trade Publications, whether right or wrong, keeps one ahead of the curve, so in that since I do agree with you.

[mdshunk]

I guess I agree with that, but I must add that the manufacturer's have their finger on the pulse of client demand more than I ever could or will. Knowing that, they're better equipped to tell me what the demand is, if that makes any sense.

[iwire]

but I must add that the manufacturer's have their finger on the pulse of client demand more than I ever could or will.

You really think so?

Sure they have departments and highly paid people to study the market etc but you are out there with the customers, your in their buildings, you often can see ways they could save money, do things better.

All I am saying is don't sell yourself short. :)

BTW. I think your list is right on the money. :)

[hardworkingstiff]

If the discussion can't take place without politics, then it can go unspoken entirely.

I repeat, do not bring politics into this discussion.

:rolleyes: :rolleyes:

[iwire]

Lou you may not like it but that is how it has to be here.

[hardworkingstiff]

Lou you may not like it but that is how it has to be here.

Thank you Bob, you too George.

[BryanMD]

I guess I agree with that, but I must add that the manufacturer's have their finger on the pulse of client demand more than I ever could or will. Knowing that, they're better equipped to tell me what the demand is, if that makes any sense.


or outright create a "demand" which they can sell the gear to satisfy ;)

[don_resqcapt19]

Marc,
I agree. I read eariler, with much displeasure, how some guys no longer read our trade magazines because of the perceived manufacturer "pollution" of the trade literature. Well, that's exactly why you should read the trade mags. Like it or not, the manufacturer's largely drive our industry. Know what they're up to, and you'll be on the cutting edge too.
While I think reading those sources is a good idea, you just have to remember not to believe everything you read. There has been so much misinformation published, that you really need to look at other sources before you believe anything. This is especially true when reading articles that were authored by a manufacturer's rep as many of are.
Don

[mdshunk]

While I think reading those sources is a good idea, you just have to remember not to believe everything you read.
Of course I don't believe everything I read, but the eventualities are not even in doubt. What we read today will come to pass for the most part, by hook or by crook. It has nothing to do with whether I like it or even believe it. There is little a contractor can do on his own to create consumer demand or sway the industry, and I really don't care to try. It is generally more profitable to know what the folks who have this capacity (ie, manufacturers) are up to.

[don_resqcapt19]

Marc,
Of course I don't believe everything I read, but the eventualities are not even in doubt. What we read today will come to pass for the most part, by hook or by crook.
I am not talking so much about the new products, more about the technical and code information it often incorrect in trade magazine articles and even in publications of the NFPA and IAEI.
Don

[bobbyho]

Speaking of Photovoltaic systems, does anyone know where to get training on these? I think it would be great to learn this since it is being mentioned more and more nowadays.

[mdshunk]

Speaking of Photovoltaic systems, does anyone know where to get training on these? I think it would be great to learn this since it is being mentioned more and more nowadays.
I think it's mostly from the manufacturers.

Dare I say, however, that the bulk of the training you'll really need on these will be sales training. Making the sale is infinitely harder than the technicalities of the installation, in my opinion. Maybe easier in Cali... hard to say.

[bobbyho]

I'm wondering if this will eventually "sell itself". I have been thinking of different ways to change the direction of my business. By changing direction it by default means more profitable. You know "smarter not harder". I went to a class on home intergration which I was really excited about. When I brought it back home and tried to interest others in it, it wasn't embraced the same way. I tend to think that the majority of the people on this and other forums for that matter are the 20% of the industry that is always looking at things with an open mind. I guess for that I am grateful. It still amazes me that many electricians I meet and ask them if they have checked out this forum have never even heard of it let alone considered popping in to check it out. I guess these are the guys that I would never meet at a seminar on green energy or home automation and maybe that is a good thing.

[mdshunk]

I'm wondering if this will eventually "sell itself".
Maybe, but by that time, the people who have already been installing it for years and years will have that market sewn up in your area. They will have also worked out the most economic installation methods and materials, with which you will have just begun experimenting. Both of these are barriers to entry by the time solar starts to sell itself.

I'm not sold on solar energy myself, but I am smart enough to recognize it as a growing trend. I see CHP micro turbines as having more profitable growth potential (per installation) in the power sector.

[GilbeSpark]

I'm not sold on solar energy myself, but I am smart enough to recognize it as a growing trend. I see CHP micro turbines as having more profitable growth potential (per installation) in the power sector.

Solar still has too high of an initial startup cost to justify it for the vasts majority of people. Then when there's a problem with the solar system, who fixes it? Who pays to have it fixed? Then when you go to have your roof redone in 10 years, how much extra is it going to cost to have the panels removed and then installed again?

Right now being "green" still costs more, or has very long return on "investment" times. When it becomes more and more mainstream competetion will kick in and prices will drop. But that'll be a few years down the road.

Keep an eye on it all and when signifigant improvements come about and reduce the costs to get into it, then dive in to learn everything you can about it to stay in front of the rest.

[macmikeman]

Im learning how to speak Chinese, and how to start up companies that cater to teenagers and the huge amount of time they waste on the internet (My Space,Tiny Pic, Facebook, yada yada yada....). That is where all the world money is going, in those two places. The electrical trade is disintegrating into Craigslist ads for $20 an hour electricians without any licensing.

[iwire]

Solar still has too high of an initial startup cost to justify it for the vasts majority of people.

But there are people that will install it and the profit margins can be high, I would not turn down business just because the I don't think the customers wants make sense.

I may be going to Arizona for solar training soon....:)

[ItsHot]

Im learning how to speak Chinese, and how to start up companies that cater to teenagers and the huge amount of time they waste on the internet (My Space,Tiny Pic, Facebook, yada yada yada....). That is where all the world money is going, in those two places. The electrical trade is disintegrating into Craigslist ads for $20 an hour electricians without any licensing.
This was my thoughts in asking the question. Why does so many so called electricians work for nothing?

[hardworkingstiff]

This was my thoughts in asking the question. Why does so many so called electricians work for nothing?

Hunger?

Lack of marketing skills?

[Rockyd]

Industry direction? HERE is some amazing tecnology... (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Rb_rDkwGnU&mode=related&search=)

[Krim]

Industry direction? HERE is some amazing tecnology... (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Rb_rDkwGnU&mode=related&search=)

WOW , that is very interesting . The only down side I can see to it would be a possible increased water shortage considering the draught conditions already affecting several areas of the country. But it sure looks to be alot better than the ever increasing demand for fossil fuels and a way to become no longer dependant on Arab's oil & their prices.

Carl :)

[Rockyd]

People mostly get concerned about drought because they perceive it as something happening in their area...

But if your neighborhood looked like this (http://weather.uk.msn.com/monthly_averages.aspx?&wealocations=wc%3aUSAK0125&setunit=F) or this... (http://www.ocs.orst.edu/pub/maps/Precipitation/Total/States/WA/wa.gif) (click the pic/graphic when you get there), you'd call it opportunity.

If you were in San Diego and had a solar powered plant, to run a desalinization plant, to get your water for fuel, you might not be held hostage by big green. Just an idea...

[Energy-Miser]

Maybe, but by that time, the people who have already been installing it for years and years will have that market sewn up in your area. They will have also worked out the most economic installation methods and materials, with which you will have just begun experimenting. Both of these are barriers to entry by the time solar starts to sell itself.

I'm not sold on solar energy myself, but I am smart enough to recognize it as a growing trend. I see CHP micro turbines as having more profitable growth potential (per installation) in the power sector.
I looked into CHP Marc, there are some very exciting movements there, you are right. The barrier I came across was, well besides cost at the moment, they work in conjunction mostly with hydronic floor heating. The concept, if a reader is not familiar with it is, to produce electricity locally (in your basement basically), while using the waste engine heat to heat up your house, hot water, etc. High efficiency overall in use of energy. As electricians, we can install and tie in the generator, etc. but will need joint venturing with HVAC guys for the heating part of it. e/m

[Energy-Miser]

Industry direction? HERE is some amazing tecnology... (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Rb_rDkwGnU&mode=related&search=)
Was this broadcast on April 1st? e/m

[Rockyd]

I saw it on another website. Thought it might be interesting to go check out as a stock for speculation (always looking for a good flyer beteen 5 and 15).

Thought the concept was way cool. How true the whole thing is, I have no idea. This is the net, buyers beware! Looks like I have some research to do.

Edit added -

On an email, here is part of the commentary...

People are selling the system down in LA. I know somebody who may go out today and look at a car running on HHO gas.
If it works I have friends up here who want to sell it themselves.

So evidently it's for real somewhat...

[Energy-Miser]

I saw it on another website. Thought it might be interesting to go check out as a stock for speculation (always looking for a good flyer beteen 5 and 15).

Thought the concept was way cool. How true the whole thing is, I have no idea. This is the net, buyers beware! Looks like I have some research to do.
I know, I saw this one before too. Seems like one of those too good to be true things out there. That is not to say that someone will not eventually unlock enormous sources of energy that can be safely put to the service of humanity. As is well known, universe is filled with energy (even matter is nothing but another form of energy). It's just getting it with little emission, radiation, etc. has been a big challenge so far, but will not necessarily be so in the coming years, decades, etc. My 2 cents. e/m