The AHJ would have to decide. Our AHJ stated that any addition to any branch curcuit in a bed room requires AFCI. However we do not require AFCI if you swap the panel out, since you are not adding new wiring.
As far as the ground goes, if there is no ground at the outlet, you would have to protect the circuit with a GFCI and mark it "no equip. ground", and if it was in a bedroom you would have to also provide AFCI on the same circuit. I know there was a post awhile ago regarding AFCI/GFCI on the same circuit and I believe that the discussion was since they protect against two different problems they should work together with no problems:roll: