Will tariffs kill solar? No politics, please

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ggunn

PE (Electrical), NABCEP certified
Location
Austin, TX, USA
Occupation
Consulting Electrical Engineer - Photovoltaic Systems
I am concerned that the escalating trade war with China will kill the solar industry in the US. Without getting in to the politics of the situation (please!) and simply looking at the tariffs at face value, will the tariffs on Chinese imports raise the prices on solar modules to US solar companies so much that it will render PV projects in this country economically nonviable?
 
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I don't think it will long term. There are some new technologies being made domestically. Though the materials themselves might be impacted.

I think it will take away from the ability of companies to mark things up and might make some of the large solar sellers or general contractors disappear.

I think the changes in rates will more likely effect the viability of solar since the long term out look on the material cost being "paid" is more effected by that.

I would need to see some of the economics on total cost to consumer and percentage of it being material. But I have always thought labor was about 50% or more of the cost anyway. So wage inflation would be more impactful?
 
I'm thinking that short term, it is badly disrupted. The current administration favors fossil fuel and is even pushing coal now. But, in the long term, the facts aren't changed. There earth (basically) isn't making more fossil fuel and the sun shines every day.
 
tthh said:
I'm thinking that short term, it is badly disrupted. [...] But, in the long term, the facts aren't changed. The earth (basically) isn't making more fossil fuel and the sun shines every day.
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I agree in principle, but I think that the "short term" could mean decades.
 
ggunn said:
I agree in principle, but I think that the "short term" could mean decades.
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I agree too. If these panels are manufactured in a foreign country it seems obvious that large tariffs will greatly increase their cost. If the manufacturing were moved to the US these products even when tariff free will still cost more. I read something today that said an iPhone manufactured in the US would cost several times more than those manufactured abroad. If the PV industry can survive will be seen.
 
ggunn said:
I agree in principle, but I think that the "short term" could mean decades.
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If the question is can I continue to pay my mortgage if the current environment lasts for 4 years? Let's say they go one step further and kill tax incentives for solar. This scenario will be very difficult to stay in business. But, long term is still undeniable. The question becomes when do people see the light of day.
 
tthh said:
I'm thinking that short term, it is badly disrupted. ... But, in the long term, the facts aren't changed. There earth (basically) isn't making more fossil fuel and the sun shines every day.
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Agreed as well... the sun shines, the tides flow, the wind blows, and I'm a little surprised there isn't more research (or maybe there is and they're just quiet about it) into geothermal. I remember as a kid, there were companies in the home comfort business advertising geo, with one of their commercials specifically mentioning how the temperature at some not-so-crazy depth was constant year round, regardless of season or weather.

The bigger problem with solar, and this has zero to do with anything about who's running what in Washington or what their tariff opinions might be, is that insurance companies apparently view rooftop solar as a game-breaking fire liability and won't insure the house at all, charge usurious rates to do so, or specially disclaim that risk.
 
I was told by a guy at the POCO Solar right now in the pacific northwest trades around 30/MWH and coal is around $70, nuclear is around $80.
Obviously thats only when the sun is shining.
There is so much going on I cant even follow it all politically but even if you double the cost of solar it still seems competitive.
 
ModbusMan said:
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The bigger problem with solar, and this has zero to do with anything about who's running what in Washington or what their tariff opinions might be, is that insurance companies apparently view rooftop solar as a game-breaking fire liability and won't insure the house at all, charge usurious rates to do so, or specially disclaim that risk.
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I don't know where you heard that is happening but it is not normal.
 
The alternative of doing nothing about how trade was conducted around the world is worse. In the short term, there is pain while the band-aid is ripped off. But ultimately, negotiations will take place and things will stabilize and be better than before. The extreme we are witness is like Jesus flipping tables in the temple. You have to get the point across that the old ways are dead.
 
tthh said:
I'm thinking that short term, it is badly disrupted. The current administration favors fossil fuel and is even pushing coal now. But, in the long term, the facts aren't changed. There earth (basically) isn't making more fossil fuel and the sun shines every day.
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And this is a political statement no matter how you try to wrap it.
 
tthh said:
If the question is can I continue to pay my mortgage if the current environment lasts for 4 years? Let's say they go one step further and kill tax incentives for solar. This scenario will be very difficult to stay in business. But, long term is still undeniable. The question becomes when do people see the light of day.
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More politics. It is hard not to respond.
 
Too many people making a killing off solar including politicians, it will not go away. China will fold on tariffs because they can’t afford to lose our business. Insurance companies hate rooftop solar because it doubles or triples the cost to replace a roof. Got a customer right now that the insurance company refuses to pay for reinstalling the solar panels, so they are sitting in a pile on the ground because it will cost the homeowner way more to re-install them than the ROI.
 
Strathead said:
And this is a political statement no matter how you try to wrap it.
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I don't think post #4 is political. It contains various observations about what is actually happening, without comment on why or whether those things are good or bad. It does not endorse any particular policy.

In contrast, post #13 is political, because it says "this policy is better than that policy."

So let's stay away from "this policy is good" or "this policy is bad" and stick with "this policy is happening, here are the likely effects." Or "if this policy gets implemented, it may have these effects."

Cheers, Wayne
 
tortuga said:
I was told by a guy at the POCO Solar right now in the pacific northwest trades around 30/MWH and coal is around $70, nuclear is around $80.
Obviously thats only when the sun is shining.
There is so much going on I cant even follow it all politically but even if you double the cost of solar it still seems competitive.
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and that is the problem...the capacity factor of solar is about .3. That is if the nameplate capacity is 100mW, you get 30mW of power for a year. With nuclear the capacity factor is about .95.
 
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