extrapolating summer peak from winter peak

[injineers]

Hi I am a student and need some understanding about how extrapolation works with peak loads in summer and winter. I am doing a transformer replacement project which requires peak load for summer and winter so that I can calculate load factor and then recommend replacements for overloaded transformers. I have a sample kva for 8 to 10 transformers for winter. Now I need to extrapolate this data for the whole feeder and then calculate summer peak.

I don't know how to start it. Really confused! as a student should be

BR

 

[mgookin]

Hello good neighbor to the north and welcome to the forums. :thumbsup:

Are you asking about the definition of extrapolate? Or the process of extrapolating something? Basically it means to find your point between two other points, and from there create a formula from which you can do your calculation.

Example: With horizontal gradients on a map, a line 50 miles to the north says value "x" and 150 miles to the south it says "y". That puts me 0.75 of the way from y to x. To extrapolate the value for the location of a project the formula would be ((y-x)*.75)+y

So what is your objective and what are your input data? Let's work together to get you a formula.

 

[bob]

Your answer may be as simple as asking the utility for the summer and winter peaks or not. Your plant, depending on the product, may have a summer peak. If you are making surfboards, the workload would increase during the summer months. If you plant produces a product that is used through out the year, the answer may be just the addition of cooling load. Suggest you check these out.

 

[Timbert]

I'm a little confused too. I don't see how you can answer this without more information. I'm sure the difference between peak summer and peak winter is dependant on location. Here the desert southwest I'm sure I don't see the same ratio from summer to winter as let's say Moose Jaw. When I lived in the Hawaii, the summer/winter ratio was essentially 1:1 year round.

That said the types of loads would make a big impact. If most of the loads are HVAC the ratio would be different than if the loads are all lighting. And again the lighting will be dependent on location (latitude).

 

[GoldDigger]

Sometimes people mistakenly use the word "extrapolate" when they really mean "predict" or even just make a SWAG.

Tapatalk!

 

[Sahib]

If you try to do with POCO's peak loads, you are in for a big surprise because the conventional summer and winter peak loads may not strictly apply due to proliferation non-conventional energy sources such as solar, wind energy sources etc.,throughout the grid changing the peak load occurrence.

 

[injineers]

Hello good neighbor to the north and welcome to the forums. :thumbsup:

Are you asking about the definition of extrapolate? Or the process of extrapolating something? Basically it means to find your point between two other points, and from there create a formula from which you can do your calculation.

Example: With horizontal gradients on a map, a line 50 miles to the north says value "x" and 150 miles to the south it says "y". That puts me 0.75 of the way from y to x. To extrapolate the value for the location of a project the formula would be ((y-x)*.75)+y

So what is your objective and what are your input data? Let's work together to get you a formula.

The idea is to identify worst performing feeder(overload failures etc) and then calculate overload on each transformer so that only truely overloaded transformers are replaced. For this I have sample data for about 10 transformers for off peak winter time (3-5 PM). Now I have only this data for each transformer and I want to expand this over the whole feeder for winter to find peak and then later approximate summer average and peak load. I am required to recommend replacements for only severely loaded transformers. My utility only provides data for each feeder from the database connected to substation so I don't think that can be of much use when we're talking about per transformer load. Thanks to you and everybody else.

It is a warm welcome for a pooping baby, Appreciated!

 

[injineers]

hi everybody thanks for the responses. To clear your concerns I have replied to one of the respondents in enough detail and using this space to let everybody know that they can see my post from 10 March 10:43AM as a reply to @mgookin