Shouldn't one assume the maximum load be 200 amps being that the only thing/protection device between the point of utility service attachment and the customer owned distribution panel is a 200 amp breaker? If conductor ampacity is being sized based on the current load there won't be room for expansion. Currently there is a 200 amp main breaker in the breaker panel.
If there is only one single service disconnect/overcurrent device then you must supply it with a 200 amp conductor,otherwise like I was mentioning before if you have multiple service disconnecting means a common supply conductor to them only needs sized for the total load calculation, which is why I said you could have a 80 amp conductor for an 80 amp load even though you have 2-100 amp mains. That one is kind of rare, but say you have a three family dwelling with three 100 amp mains. You need a 100 amp conductor from each meter to each main but the common feed to all three meters could possibly only be 125 amp conductor if that is all the load calc for all three dwellings is.
Also keep in mind that 310.15(B)(7) allows you to reduce the conductor to 83% (this in 2014 NEC) of the overcurrent device for a conductor that is the service or feeder to a single dwelling unit. Since you are feeding more then just a dwelling unit with this conductor though it may be questionable if you can use (B)(7).
If you are concerned of voltage drop because of a long run - that is a different issue, NEC only requires a minimum 200 amp conductor to a 200 amp service disconnect but you could have much larger then that if combination of load/length causes an undesirable voltage drop.