OK. I suspect you might be trying to overthink things while trying to boil this down to a simple rule. It isn't simple, in my opinion, unless you start with what you want to do, and then apply the appropriate rule to the task.
Your opening post asked only about replacing one receptacle device.
Is this a one per one ratio?
This, the "one per one ratio", is making use of the 406.4(D)(4)(1) rule.
or When replacing the standard duplex receptacle with an AFCI or combination AFCI/GFCI receptacle all the devices down current from them maybe protected off the load terminals only if all the requirements from 210.12 are met?
You seem to be mixing two rules together here. . . so, before taking off into 210.12, let's stay with the one "receptacle replacement rule" that really hasn't been explored yet, and that is 406.4(D)(4)(2).
My customer calls me to their house to replace the receptacles in the living room because they want a different color for the devices. I come to the living room and open up the receptacles and I find that one is the "feed" end and the other receptacles are "down current", but I don't bother to check further about where on the branch circuit these receptacles are. There may, or may not be more outlets upstream. . . I don't care, because the "replacement" rule doesn't restrict me like 210.12.
What I'm doing, is ONLY replacing the living room receptacles for this one customer of mine, and I have learned, by opening up the receptacles that I am to replace, that there is a feed end (from somewhere, I don't care) and the rest of the receptacles are downstream of this feed end. I can install an OBC AFCI receptacle (or a combination OBC AFCI / GFCI receptacle if the wiring method is ungrounded) and connect the FEED wires to the LINE terminals and the downstream wires to the LOAD terminals. That protects the remaining receptacles that my customer wants to change the color of and I can use regular grounding type receptacles for the remaining locations.
This is the application of 406.4(D)(4)(2). I am only replacing receptacles, not adding any new branch circuit wiring or new outlets.
In many ways, the electrical contractor thinking that leads to the best value for the customer, is like we do when adding GFCI protection to existing receptacles. If changing one device with the GFCI and protecting downstream works, then it costs less.
Now there may be more "down current" load than just the living room receptacles. . . It's good to know what that is, in case something there is going to be tripping the new protective receptacle device. If I don't like what ever this down current load is, I may recommend OBC AFCI devices for each receptacle I replace, and not protect the branch circuit wiring at all.
The only reason I look at 210.12 is for the list of areas / rooms that require AFCI if they have new OUTLETS installed (which means new branch circuit wiring). Remember, what I want to do is REPLACE receptacles ONLY.
Now, if I add new branch circuit wiring to add a new Outlet, then we're off to 210.12.