gar said:
080521-0607 EST
DJFNEC2005:
I believe you meant to say $0.75 to $1.50 per DC watt, not kilowatt.
Yes, I would guess this is watts too. The problem
is the actual numbers are closer to $6-7/watt. Maybe
after extremely generous rebates and tax breaks, or
perhaps in the long term future if there's a breakthrough
and the solar market isn't supply constrained, there
might be a number close to $1/watt. This isn't
coming any time soon, and the real installed cost is
much higher than $1/watt of capacity.
gar said:
If this is the peak rating in bright sunshine, or even the average or 6 hours, then the cost per watt of continuous power over a day's period is probably at least 4 times these figures.
Gar, By this math, each "kilowatt" of peak capacity would be
generating 6 KWH/day, so I think you should actually be
dividing by 6 below, not multiplying by 4.
After you divide, the reality of AC-power generated is much
much worse because system inefficiencies.
gar said:
Since a typical residence use is in the range of 24 KWH per day, this amounts to a large capital investment. This is 24*365 = 8760 KWH/year. At our electric rates this is 0.11*8760 = $963.60 electric cost per year.
For an average of 24 KWH per day and my factor of 4 above we need a solar array capable of 96 KW. At $1 per W this is a capaital investment of $96,000. Or about 100 years for payback. There are a lot of approximations in my calculation, but it is not a 10 year payback.
My own home consumption is more in the range of 45 KWH/day.
.
Where I live, in California, a well sited, well installed
1KW of peak (STC) capacity can generate about 1,400 KWH of
power/year. If we use somewhere like Detroit, the
numbers would work out to a little more than 1KWH
of power per 1,000 KW of peak capacity), which
makes the math easy, so let's use the Detroit numbers. Generating
8,760 KWH/year would take about a 8-9KW system, at
roughly $7/watt, or about $50-60K+/-. (If you want, I
can dig into my notes and get the derivation of these
numbers, and send you the more detailed math behind
the KWH/Watts numbers, but I usually just use these
numbers which are pretty standard.)