Loderunner -
NFPA 70E gives some methods to calculate incident energy and approach distances.
As to causes. Assuming the equipment is being kept relativly clean, has even minor maintenance pulled, and the fixers are keeping their wrenches out of the energized busses, I don't know what could cause it.
Zog -
You say you are responding weekly to arcflash incidents in 15kV equipment. That is 50 a year your company is responding to. What are some of the root causes? Also, maybe you could give me some examples of the worst and least incidents so I can have some idea of the magnitude of the issues. I'm thinking that it is surprising there are any companies still operating in your state. At 50 incidents a year just in your area, all the companies would be shutdown from equipment damage or OSHA violations.
The thought just occured to me that I may not understand the definition of "Flash Hazard". So I looked it up in NFPA 70E. "A dangereous condition associated the release of energy caused by an electric arc."
Using that definition, I'm going to translate to:
A backhoe sticks a bucket through a cable and the CB trips. All the CB fire is contained inside the cabinet. - Not an Arcflash Incident, A fault and a CB trip is not necessarily an arcflash incident.
A backhoe sticks a bucket through a cable and the CB trips. The CB door flies open and minimal fire from the arc chutes comes out the door. - This is an Arcflash Incident, minimal, but an incident.
In my mind, an arcflash incident means there was equipment damage that released sufficient energy for either a potential personnel hazard or to damage other equipment.
Then again, I may well not understand the definition of "arc flash/blast incidents from 15kV switchgear ".