hardworkingstiff
Senior Member
- Location
- Wilmington, NC
How long do you think (feel) it will be before the economy starts expanding again?
Economy poll
- Thread starter hardworkingstiff
- Start date
- Status
- Location
- Chapel Hill, NC
- Occupation
- Retired Electrical Contractor
I am afraid it is going to be awhile before things get better. Work for me is so good right now that I am passing jobs on to others. I can see thru Feb. We will see what happens then. Unfortunately what is going on here is not an indicator of the economy in general. This is a world wide happening and we can only guess (more likely hope) when this is going to turn around.
mdshunk
Senior Member
- Location
- Right here.
It's starting right now.
ultramegabob
Senior Member
- Location
- Indiana
the economy will improve when the media starts telling people its improving.
Perception is Reality.
peter d
Senior Member
- Location
- New England
I think it's going to take some time before it ever gets to levels where it was say, 2-3 years ago. How much time? Who knows!
There is still the looming issue of hyperinflation due to all this worthless money that the gov't keeps handing out.
There is still the looming issue of hyperinflation due to all this worthless money that the gov't keeps handing out.
iaov
Senior Member
- Location
- Rhinelander WI
mdshunk
Senior Member
- Location
- Right here.
How to tip, from the latest Kiplinger letter... customer service is important:
hardworkingstiff
Senior Member
- Location
- Wilmington, NC
I agree, well said Peter.
I've been trying to get my mind around the difference in money (dollar) and wealth, and what drives demand for goods and services. The more I think about it the more my head hurts. It seems to come down to an expanding economy is what drives "good times". The expanding economy seems to be driven by consumption. Consumption has been financed by inflating values of real estate and stock portfolios. The past loose money supplies have over inflated the values of real estate and stocks. Consumers made use of easy credit further driving consumption and values.
So I'm trying to understand, how do we get consumption back on track? As previously stated, perception that everything is OK will help tremendously. Reality is that consumers are over-extended and even with the pumping of money into the economy, the new credit worthy rules will keep the lid on consumption demand by limiting the amount of credit extended to consumers. Someone/s have to take the financial hit for all of the past exuberance. Until the losses are accepted and digested, I don?t think we can have an expanding economy.
My thoughts go on and on about this stuff, I need to take some economics classes I guess.
The IRS will only accept dollars. This is a big part of its value.
jnsane84
Senior Member
- Location
- Virginia Beach, Va.
Whats sad is that we all suffer at the hands of a few. The media coupled with our great mind(less) who run our governmment believe its a great idea to continue to make loans to huge corporations and print more worthless money while the little guy(you and I) continue to suffer. I love the story on CNN Headline news of the workers of the glass company who refused to leave without compensation. Bank of America along with alot of other financial institutions could alleviate alot of their own issues but instead go to the government with their hand out because they are in peril due to mismanagement of funds. We are funding an INVASION which takes from our economy and every natural disaster that occurs in the world we are the first to step in and provide aid.......wheres some aid for the homeless and needy in our country. Hope you guys get to read this before its deleted. I know I went a little off subject and I'm waivering on the fence of deletion but I understand why. 
Money is another tool in the tool box. How, and when, it gets used are the keys to getting the economy firing on all cylinders again...
Have to see between now, and swear in cermony. unfortunately, a lot of the "talking heads" in the media, that are monday morning quarterbacks, have way too much influence on reality...
Saying 6 to 12 months, if we don't go forward fairly soon, we'll have the biggest depression to date.
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IMO it will be a long time before we see consumption like we did a few years ago. The working dollar has not caught up with the cost of living. We just felt what the 3 year adjustable rates for homes has done. If they didn't fix this problem then in the spring of 2010 those 5 year rates will adjust then here we go again. It starts and ends with housing. Some homes dropped $100k in value. I don't know about you guys but it takes a long time to recoup those loses even if the lose was $10k.
I read a story of how the German Mark fall in 1923. seems to be the same story the dollar could see.
Marc if you could please forward the federal numbers over to me that show positive growth.
I read a story of how the German Mark fall in 1923. seems to be the same story the dollar could see.
Marc if you could please forward the federal numbers over to me that show positive growth.
Greg Swartz
Senior Member
- Location
- Colorado Springs, Colorado
It'll be a long time...
It'll be a long time...
I have been following H.S. Dent http://www.hsdent.com/ for quite a while now. He is predicting that the economy will continue to degrade for quite a while. He did this well before the elections and before the bailout. In fact, he has been talking about this for over 2 years now.
His comments have always been on the mark.
While I agree that we will see small gains, we will also see small losses. And overall, the economy will get worse.
What is happening, is that the baby boomer generation is retiring. And Generation X, is substationally smaller than the previous generation. That means there is a smaller workforce than before, and with a larger population. Something has to give.
He targets late 2009, to early 2010 to see the full effects of this market.
While I agree that "wooing your customer" is a good thing, we as business owners will reach a saturation point, where we cannot handle more business because we cannot hire quality employees... because there aren't any out there (or we're advtersing in the wrong spot)
I also believe that we wll need to be better than before, because competition will get a lot tougher, because people will know that competition is fierce, and they can get more and more bids, until someone reaches their price level.
1/2 of my work force is in the baby boomer generation. I hire them, because they have a great work ethic. I have problems with the younger generation, wanting more pay, and willing to work less than someone in their late 40s or older. My experience is that baby boomers are excellent workers, and while having them reach their retirement age is of some concern, they are generally a better worker, and I can depend on them more.
My goal is to be the best. Not the biggest, but the best. The best person I can be. The best dad I can be, the best husband I can be, the best Christian I can be, the best EC I can be, the best at everything I can do. I believe with all my heart that this will not only bring me through this "depression," but help me to thrive in this era.
We have grown 800% in the last 2 years... granted, I've only been in business for 2 years, and it's easy to grow the beginning numbers, but I am seeking ways to maintain that growth...
Greg
It'll be a long time...
I have been following H.S. Dent http://www.hsdent.com/ for quite a while now. He is predicting that the economy will continue to degrade for quite a while. He did this well before the elections and before the bailout. In fact, he has been talking about this for over 2 years now.
His comments have always been on the mark.
While I agree that we will see small gains, we will also see small losses. And overall, the economy will get worse.
What is happening, is that the baby boomer generation is retiring. And Generation X, is substationally smaller than the previous generation. That means there is a smaller workforce than before, and with a larger population. Something has to give.
He targets late 2009, to early 2010 to see the full effects of this market.
While I agree that "wooing your customer" is a good thing, we as business owners will reach a saturation point, where we cannot handle more business because we cannot hire quality employees... because there aren't any out there (or we're advtersing in the wrong spot)
I also believe that we wll need to be better than before, because competition will get a lot tougher, because people will know that competition is fierce, and they can get more and more bids, until someone reaches their price level.
1/2 of my work force is in the baby boomer generation. I hire them, because they have a great work ethic. I have problems with the younger generation, wanting more pay, and willing to work less than someone in their late 40s or older. My experience is that baby boomers are excellent workers, and while having them reach their retirement age is of some concern, they are generally a better worker, and I can depend on them more.
My goal is to be the best. Not the biggest, but the best. The best person I can be. The best dad I can be, the best husband I can be, the best Christian I can be, the best EC I can be, the best at everything I can do. I believe with all my heart that this will not only bring me through this "depression," but help me to thrive in this era.
We have grown 800% in the last 2 years... granted, I've only been in business for 2 years, and it's easy to grow the beginning numbers, but I am seeking ways to maintain that growth...
Greg
Fulthrotl
~Autocorrect is My Worst Enema.~
- Occupation
- E
a nickel opinion...
a nickel opinion...
there's a lot of people posting on this one.... here's a nickels worth of opinion:
people keep pointing to the dow doing this, or that... please keep in mind
that the CURRENT dow only reflects those portions of the benchmark
stocks that are still in business.
fully a quarter of the dow was investment bankers, and they aren't here
anymore. so, the REAL dow would include all the failures of the financial
community. it's much worse than they say, but that doesn't matter, in
truth. perception becomes reality, and it is done unto us as we believe.
we'll make up a solution, and keep doing so, until we find one that works.
1929 was bad, but please remember that it didn't hit bottom until 1932.
a 2 1/2 year slide downward. unemployment at 35%.
this time, it'll be faster, and the oscillations will be faster, because the
whole planet is networked. that wasn't the case in 1929.
the baby boomers hadn't been born in 1929. now, they are reaching
retirement age, and there are not enough people behind them to support
them when they stop working.
in the next 4 years, fully 50 million people were expecting to retire.
that isn't going to happen. in truth, there never was a way for that
to happen. does anyone here really believe that a quarter of the working
population can stop, and the other three quarters will support them until
they die?
truth be told, the united states lost WW2 two years after it ended,
by doubling it's population in two years. that glut of people has bent
and twisted the entire country to it's will and whim since 1949.
housing.
preschools.
middle schools.
colleges.
and now, retirement.
there are 50 million people ending their working years, and no place for
them to go, and no money to go there with.
that's the real problem we face. a huge aging population.
all the stocks and bean counter games? that's all an intellectual dance
around how we are going to manage ourself as a culture.
want a hot investment deal for todays economy?
cemeteries.
there's another housing shortage looming on the horizon,
or rather, six feet under the horizon.
that's my nickels worth..... time to get back to work.
posting here doesn't pay as well as running pipe.
randy
a nickel opinion...
there's a lot of people posting on this one.... here's a nickels worth of opinion:
people keep pointing to the dow doing this, or that... please keep in mind
that the CURRENT dow only reflects those portions of the benchmark
stocks that are still in business.
fully a quarter of the dow was investment bankers, and they aren't here
anymore. so, the REAL dow would include all the failures of the financial
community. it's much worse than they say, but that doesn't matter, in
truth. perception becomes reality, and it is done unto us as we believe.
we'll make up a solution, and keep doing so, until we find one that works.
1929 was bad, but please remember that it didn't hit bottom until 1932.
a 2 1/2 year slide downward. unemployment at 35%.
this time, it'll be faster, and the oscillations will be faster, because the
whole planet is networked. that wasn't the case in 1929.
the baby boomers hadn't been born in 1929. now, they are reaching
retirement age, and there are not enough people behind them to support
them when they stop working.
in the next 4 years, fully 50 million people were expecting to retire.
that isn't going to happen. in truth, there never was a way for that
to happen. does anyone here really believe that a quarter of the working
population can stop, and the other three quarters will support them until
they die?
truth be told, the united states lost WW2 two years after it ended,
by doubling it's population in two years. that glut of people has bent
and twisted the entire country to it's will and whim since 1949.
housing.
preschools.
middle schools.
colleges.
and now, retirement.
there are 50 million people ending their working years, and no place for
them to go, and no money to go there with.
that's the real problem we face. a huge aging population.
all the stocks and bean counter games? that's all an intellectual dance
around how we are going to manage ourself as a culture.
want a hot investment deal for todays economy?
cemeteries.
there's another housing shortage looming on the horizon,
or rather, six feet under the horizon.
that's my nickels worth..... time to get back to work.
posting here doesn't pay as well as running pipe.
randy
BryanMD
Senior Member
A larger question may be whether we *want* to see consumption like we did a few years ago. I know I don't.
An increase in consumption that is actually paid for (or at least financed sanely) otoh would be a nice change.
Everyone believed that their investments and real estate were actually worth what the market prices said they were. Everyone was wrong. If you/we/they can accept that reduction in value, take that maybe actual cash "hit' in your portfolio... you'll be fine.
But too many have upside down mortgages and HELOC's (maybe to finance the start up of a business?) and coming back from THAT will take a long, long time.
bikeindy
Senior Member
- Location
- Indianapolis IN
Mike Holts new economics forum. This is great.
Attention ALL.
This thread is Off-Topic and has a potential to go polictical real quick. I believe it is healthy for an open minded discussion for something we all share common ground with and will not close the thread as of yet. Since this thread is Off-Topic and not really industry related don't be surprize if one of the othe MOD's steps in and closes it with no notice.
If any more political incorrect statements are made, I will close it. So keep it clean and factual. for now
This thread is Off-Topic and has a potential to go polictical real quick. I believe it is healthy for an open minded discussion for something we all share common ground with and will not close the thread as of yet. Since this thread is Off-Topic and not really industry related don't be surprize if one of the othe MOD's steps in and closes it with no notice.
If any more political incorrect statements are made, I will close it. So keep it clean and factual.
for nowjnsane84
Senior Member
- Location
- Virginia Beach, Va.
How long do you think the current economic situation will take before it makes a major impact on our profession? Back on subject....
growler
Senior Member
- Location
- Atlanta,GA
Why shouldn't they "Close" it, everything else in this country is closing. Stores, banks factories even news papers.
Probably why the economy is in such lousy shape.
- Status