I think from a design perspective not considering the EV as 100% is frivolous. Especially if it is a 50A charger on a 100A panel.
Frivolous? I can see saying it is non-conservative, but I don't see what's frivolous about following the rules as written.
As to non-conservative, the incremental effect is clearly non-conservative. Adding an EVSE can actually boost measured current on the service by the full amount of the EVSE rating.
However, the rest of 220.81/220.82 is in fact overconservative. It is surprising when the actual load on a residential service without EVSE is more than half of the calculated load. So in practice, for the typical case of adding a single EVSE, it will not tip the balance to the point where the actual measured current on the service exceeds the load calculation. There is no problem with the overall calculation in almost all cases.
Now, obviously we can construct examples where that is not true. Say a small house with a 125A service and a load calculation of 80A, which actually sees a peak current of say 40A. If we add (3) 32A EVSEs, that will increase the load calc from 80A to 118A, so still allowed on the 125A service. But if we are actually charging 3 EVs at 32A each while the rest of the service hits its peak load, that would be 136A on the service, too much. So this is a rare example where we should use our judgement and not do the minimum the code currently allows.
As to the 2026 First Draft, it recognizes that the rest of 220.81 was overconservative. The portion of the load figured at 100% was dropped from 10 kVA to 8 kVA, which is a reduction in the calculated load of 1.2kVA, or 5A. And the load per sq ft for general lighting and general use receptacles was dropped from 3 VA/ft^2 to 2 VA/ft^2. For a 2400 sq ft house, that's another reduction of 960VA (after the 40%), or 4A. Together that means that for a 2400 sq ft house with a single 32A EVSE, the calculated load will only be 10A higher under the 2026 First Draft.
Cheers, Wayne