Home Building Slowdown

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jimmyglen

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It looks like the mortgage business and home building business are both taking a huge hit right now. I listen to Bloomberg radio all day and it seems bad on the national level.

Here in St. Louis it doesnt seem all that bad.

How is it where you are?


jim
 
You wouldn't even know there was a slowdown here in Lake Placid, NY, if it weren't for the surrounding areas....they're down...banking is tight.
 
things are still pretty good here in south georgia. like bob said, its always doom and gloom on the news. its almost like they're trying to shut down the economy by scaring people. we had our first noticable slow down in four years at the beginning of '07. but its coming back around.
 
lpelectric said:
You wouldn't even know there was a slowdown here in Lake Placid, NY, if it weren't for the surrounding areas....

Yeah, I was up there a few weeks ago and the only new "construction" I saw was on the surface of Rt. 86. Seems like the paving crews are slowing down, too -- wouldn't have thought it could them all summer just to repave the main drag... ;)
 
We're seeing a huge hit right now. We're doing all we can to keep our inspectors busy. We're getting pretty close to built out so we're seeing more multifamily projects now and on the commercial end nobody seems in a very big hurry to get started with the projects that we've apporved.
 
There are many signs that the housing market is slowing in this area. Time on the market is up, foreclosures up drastically, many homes are on the market, and new construction is down, and of course we all know about the mortgage market problems.

Even with all the bad indicators, things are still moving along at a decent pace, and nobody I know is lacking for work.
 
Fl is a mess!

yep that's what i'm hearing too. tallahassee is doing okay. i live about 15 min off the florida line and a lot of the houses i've been doing are people moving up here from florida.
 
barbeer said:
Fl is a mess! Close friend is a mortgage guy and he is hurtin. Residential is very slow but comm. is goin strong.
I'm so swamped I'm thinking about changing my signature.

High end resi. is good. High rise condos below average.

I'm commercial and as far as I'm concerned new busnisess means new homes to come.
 
Early 08 is when those adjustable mortgages will start to kick in. Not sure about you guys but if the Average home is around $200k most banks are now looking for 10% down or even 20%. $200k is a beginner home in most areas, Not sure how people can come up with $20k or even $40k for a starter home. I highly doubt you can get those great 80-20 loans nowadays. I think the worst is yet to come. Maybe 09 things might be back to normal, But what do I know, I'm just an electrician. I hear commercial is still strong.
 
Commercial construction is booming around here, but there is a noticeable decline in new residential. There's still plenty of it, but if I were to give an educated guess, I'd say it's down by about 40%. There aren't nearly as many painters, drywall finishers and landscaping people in the lines at 7-11 as there used to be this time a year ago.
 
Minnesota Slow

Minnesota Slow

Here in Minnesota it is definitely slow. Housing is way down. Finding a LOT of resi contractors trying to venture into the commercial market - where things aren't exactly booming.

Heard from a Local Union electrician that over 600 electricians on the book between St. Paul and Minneapolis unions.
 
Here in Iowa homebuilding is way down. Many new developments are only 10-15% built. Tumbleweeds blow down the streets. Luckily, I do mostly high-end customs for my resi work. Service calls and remodels get me enough residential work I care for. The other half of my day is commercial.

Here's a typical 3-year old development near me:
Slow Resi.JPG
 
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i was discussing the housing slowdown with a gc type friend and he said that when housing isn't profitable enough all the gc's who are able to switch to other markets go for commercial projects.
 
We have hit an all time low. From the paper today:

Not long ago, carpenter Kristopher Phillips could not keep up with the orders for moulding in the hundreds of homes being built in North Port. But with no jobs in sight, this week Phillips headed north to deliver a boat to Virginia, a sign of just how far North Port's vaunted building industry has fallen in the past year.

In August, North Port issued permits for 12 new homes -- the lowest monthly total in five years. The city issued more than that in a day back in 2005 and 2006, when North Port led the region in new home construction.

"We were doing 15 homes a week," said Phillips, who has sustained himself with odd jobs while selling his house, his truck and laying off nine employees from his business. "Now I get maybe one a month. Maybe."

Charlotte, Manatee and Sarasota are suffering through a similar construction slowdown, the likes of which has not been seen for more than a decade. Home starts are down nationwide, with some economists worrying that the linked struggles of the construction, real estate and credit sectors could drag the economy into a recession.

But because North Port's home building market -- fueled by speculators looking to cash in on the real estate boom -- rose so far so fast, the downturn has hit the city harder than its neighbors.

North Port's August building permit numbers are down 89 percent compared with the same month a year ago. Manatee and Sarasota counties each had a less jarring 47 percent drop. Charlotte County saw a 69 percent decline from July 2006 to July 2007, the most recent figures available.

"I believe that that this is the bottom," said Ron Hill, president of the Charlotte/Desoto Building Industry Association.

"If anybody is interested in getting a deal on a new house," he added, "there's no better time than right now."

Across the building and real estate industries, people have watched the plummeting numbers closely.

"You knew that something was going to give because of the speculators in the market," said Tammy Lynch, president of the Home Builders Association of Manatee County.

Construction has played a vital role in North Port's economic growth this decade as the city's population doubled. The growth became a point of civic pride as well, giving the community a chance to flex its political muscle toward Sarasota County, with which it has frequently feuded over development issues.

That makes desire for a market turnaround even more intense, as the city has slashed its budget and taken other steps to cope with declining tax and fee revenue.

"I probably wouldn't hold my breath for the remainder of this year," said Hank Lize, of Hamsher Homes in North Port, one of the many companies that built hundreds of homes for spec buyers during the boom.

"We use the barometer of actual contracts signed, and that is at an all-time low right now," he said.

In February 2006, the pinnacle of the city's home building explosion, North Port permitted 609 new houses.

Even the surrounding larger surrounding counties could not match the total. Charlotte, Manatee and Sarasota combined issued only 78 more permits than North Port alone in February 2006.

Local real estate agent Donna Lee hopes to weather the downturn. In North Port since 1988, Lee said she has never seen the market this slow.

"I would love to say within the year," she said of when the market will rebound. "But we're probably going to be more like 18 months."

Acknowledging the downturn, North Port cut more than $145 million in projects from its four-year spending plan.

In addition, efforts to squeeze more revenue from growth have landed the city in court. Builders are suing to overturn a fee assessed for heavy equipment damage to city roads. The fee, which generated $15,398 last month, is still a pittance compared with the cost of North Port's infrastructure needs.

North Port's growth now looks more like that of its neighbors. The city of Venice, which has far less vacant land than North Port, issued four new home permits last month. In the past year, the city of Sarasota has issued 107 new home permits.

Still, the affordable homes and abundance of land that first drew droves to North Port remain, and people who are in the city to stay believe that the doldrums will pass.

Centex Homes, which operates in 25 states, pulled two of the 12 permits issued last month. Megan Zoller, sales consultant, said the company is still getting orders for houses, though fewer than in the past. It is still building a few houses.

"We're not even halfway built out," Zoller said of the company's two neighborhoods going up on Toledo Blade Boulevard.

Centex plans 1,257 homes along the roadway that connects North Port to Interstate 75. The road is to be widened to four lanes within the next year.
 
bphgravity said:
In February 2006, the pinnacle of the city's home building explosion, North Port permitted 609 new houses.

That's a mind-boggling number for a month. I'd be shocked if my town had done 609 new homes in the last 10 years. Whatever has been done, 95% would be condos. There's just no space left...
 
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