NLSI's Lightning Risk Assessment

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bphgravity

Senior Member
Location
Florida
Following is the National Lightning Safety Institutes "Short Version of Risk Assessment". It provides a good perspective on this issue of lightning.

NLSI's Short Version of Risk Assessment:

1. Lightning behavior is not fully understood. In another 100 years, science may roll back the “unknown” to the “known.” Today we can only agree that lightning is arbitrary, capricious, random, stochastic, and unpredictable.

2. From a perspective of statistical probability, the likelihood of lightning striking your facility or structure is remote. Perhaps a one-in-a-million chance?

3. If lightning did strike your operations, damage from a lightning strike is calculable. Consequences range from “mild” to “catastrophic.”
Your options are:
A. Do nothing. Run with the odds. Take your chances.
B. Do something. Get some information. Perform a safety assessment. Install defenses for people and for the facility.

6. Lightning doesn't care what you do.

1. ASSUME -

4 CG flashes/km2/yr/average

House is 10 X 20 m2 = 1200 m2

Direct strike to house when lightning hits within 10 m

Predicted strike (1200 X4)/1 000 000 =

4.8 X 10 -3 or once ea. 200 years

Therefore - 1 out of 200 house will be struck per year.

2. ASSUME -

USA population = 280,000,000

1000 lightning victims/year/average

Odds = 1 : 280,000 of being struck by lightning
 
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