You failed to advise what the temperature rise and what the insulation class was. Another assumption is that is is a general purpose ventilated transformer (xfmr) installed with at least 6" of ventilation space around it.
It is most difficult to state an opinion with out knowing all of the parameters.
Today?s 220deg insulation is far superior to those in the past for insulation life. A transformer manufactured with today?s material should have a 25-40 year life if the insulation class of 220deg C is not exceeded
It starts with the insulation class, i.e. 220degC. Then xfmrs are designed to operate at 30degC ambient, 40degC max. The maximum temperature allowed within the winding, commonly called hot spot temperature, is 30degC.
This is how it works:
40 oC maximum ambient
+150 oC maximum average winding rise
+30 oC maximum hot spot in winding
=220 oC ultimate temp at hot spot which is the insulation class
Overload a 220degC insulating class xfmr will have an affect on xfmr life by increasing the temp rise. Lowering the ambient temp can counteract this. As you can see you're dealing with amb. temp which could very and xfmr loading which can also very. On larger xfmr s where fans can be added (FA) the KVA can be increase 33% if the 40degC ambient is not exceeded.
Now, consider xfmr with 220degC class insulation but with a 115degC rise. 40degC+115degC+30degC=185degC that's 35degC less than 220degC. Xfmr s designed with a 115degC would certainly last longer because at full load they would run cooler.
Specifying 220 oC insulation with 80 oC or 115 oC rise will provide overload capability, better efficiency, as well as longer life. These transformers are designed to operate with a lower rise. As and example: 40 oC maximum ambient
40 oC maximum ambient
+80 oC maximum average winding rise
+30 oC maximum hot spot in winding
=150degC
220 oC ultimate temperature at hot spot - 150degC = 70degC that you have left to place with, i.e. overload capacity without exceeding the insulation class of the xfmr.
In other words a xfmr with 220degC insulation with an 80degC rise will allow for a 30% overload, a xfmr with a 115degC rise allows for a 15% overload keeping in mind that the 40degC ambient can not be exceeded.
Now, how do you predict voltage surges and spikes as well lightning strikes, which can contribute to the deceased life of a xfmr? Then there is harmonic content that can cause heating.
A 3ph xfmr installed without considering harmonic content can be subject to overheating with out being overloaded. A complex that was designed and used where harmonics was not an issue probably has a general-purpose xfmr (s). Why should the builder go through the expense of paying for K-factor xfmrs? The tenants move out and the area turned into an office space with lots of office space and the switching power supplies. Light fixtures are changed to the more current energy saving electronic ballasts.
Now you have a run of the mill general purpose transformer faced to deal with mega harmonics.
This may have been more than you ever wanted to know about transfomers.
Yes, determining xfmr life expectancy is like shooting at shadows.