Water, power, and population

Status
Not open for further replies.
G

gar

Senior Member
Location
Ann Arbor, Michigan
Occupation
EE
161020-2457 EDT

A very important discussion from 2010. See http://cis.org/southwest-water-population-growth . Man requires water for life, and also it is a major source of electrical energy in the Southwest.

Since 1900 US and world population has exploded. You can search the Internet for details. The above 29 page discussion describes the saturation we are into, and there is little general public discussion on the problem.

Problems of Lake Mead and Hoover Dam are mentioned at various places thru the article.

.
 
Last edited:
gar said:
161020-2457 EDT

A very important discussion from 2010. See http://cis.org/southwest-water-population-growth . Man requires water for life, and also it is a major source of electrical energy in the Southwest.

Since 1900 US and world population has exploded. You can search the Internet for details. The above 29 page discussion describes the saturation we are into, and there is little general public discussion on the problem.

Problems of Lake Mead and Hoover Dam are mentioned at various places thru the article.
Click to expand...

Interesting article, gar.
The issues are reflected in many countries and societies globally.
Here, in UK, We have had water and power shortages. One of the issues with power has been the absence of replacement for the closing down of nuclear power stations. Successive governments did nothing about it for decades. It was not a vote winner. The public, the electorate, looked at Chernobyl and, more recently, the Fukushima plant. It is called a disaster. It shouldn't have happened. There were no fatalities. But that takes precedence over the 20,000 lives lost unrelated to the nuclear plant.
 
gar said:
161020-2457 EDT

A very important discussion from 2010. See http://cis.org/southwest-water-population-growth . Man requires water for life, and also it is a major source of electrical energy in the Southwest.

Since 1900 US and world population has exploded. You can search the Internet for details. The above 29 page discussion describes the saturation we are into, and there is little general public discussion on the problem.

Problems of Lake Mead and Hoover Dam are mentioned at various places thru the article.

.
Click to expand...

there are only, imho, two really devastating things we face in the US. neither are political.

this is the biggest one. i've ranted about it on here before.
when the penstock tubes start sucking air, we are well and duly screwed.

https://www.newsdeeply.com/water/articles/2016/06/20/what-lake-meads-record-low-means-for-california
 
Fulthrotl said:
there are only, imho, two really devastating things we face in the US. neither are political.

this is the biggest one. i've ranted about it on here before.
when the penstock tubes start sucking air, we are well and duly screwed.

https://www.newsdeeply.com/water/articles/2016/06/20/what-lake-meads-record-low-means-for-california
Click to expand...
A very good read on this subject is Thirst for Power by Dr. Michael E Webber

https://www.kirkusreviews.com/book-reviews/michael-e-webber/thirst-for-power/

Dr. Webber is the renewable energy guru for the University of Texas at Austin.
 
gar said:
161020-2457 EDT

A very important discussion from 2010. See http://cis.org/southwest-water-population-growth . Man requires water for life, and also it is a major source of electrical energy in the Southwest.

Since 1900 US and world population has exploded. You can search the Internet for details. The above 29 page discussion describes the saturation we are into, and there is little general public discussion on the problem.

Problems of Lake Mead and Hoover Dam are mentioned at various places thru the article.

.
Click to expand...

Construction has picked up again in Las Vegas over the last year.

I'm sure city planners are discussing the issues of water supply, but they are doing it behind closed doors. Many people, including the media, are short sighted. They want to take advantage of growth today, and are making plans to get out before water supply runs out.
 
161011-1538 EDT

Some interesting population data follows:

Code: 
Population in millions
Ratio/Year is the multiplier per year of the starting population to get the year ending population.
  
               Population
Time Range    Start     End       Ratio/Year

      10000   BC        170                  End of the recent ice age

Following are AD

   1 -  500    170      190       1.0002     Very close to not increasing

 500 - 1000    190      254       1.0006
1000 - 1500    254      425       1.001
1500 - 1800    425      813       1.002
1800 - 1900    813     1550       1.007
1900 - 1950   1550     2400       1.008
1950 - 1975   2400     4089       1.02
1975 - 2000   4089     6088       1.02
2000 - 2015   6088     7256       1.01

Very intetresting results if i did not make any mistakes. Note that we may now be starting to reduce the increase.

I have traced a possible ancestor back as far as 1040, and after about 1200 I started seeing some people live into their 80s.

1 and 2 % increases per year are really large numbers.

.
 
From the article in the OP:

"Today, water flows to where people demand it rather than to where nature intended, a tradition begun in the early 1900s and the sole reason the Southwest has attained the population it has today — although that achievement may not be sustainable."

Does it make sense to put so many people in a desert and then try to bring water to them?

Population is dwindling here, we also have plenty of water.
 
kwired said:
From the article in the OP:

"Today, water flows to where people demand it rather than to where nature intended, a tradition begun in the early 1900s and the sole reason the Southwest has attained the population it has today — although that achievement may not be sustainable."

Does it make sense to put so many people in a desert and then try to bring water to them?

Population is dwindling here, we also have plenty of water.
Click to expand...

the problem, as i've yammered before is when there isn't enough head pressure to spin turbines,
there isn't enough spare power in the grid to pump colorado water to so calif. so it deadpools.
the power stops, but worse, the water stops.

and one in six people in america goes dry. the financial collapse of so. calif. will have a huge effect
on the entire US economy. CA is 13.3% of the US GDP.

lake mead would have deadpooled at 1,050'. we are at 1,075.5' today.
different turbines have been installed, with different controls. they have
one impeller left to change out.

the new impellers, theoretically, will deadpool at 950'. theoretically. we'll find out.
the level isn't going up.

we are in deep poo, guys. there is NO indication that the water level in lake mead will rise. none.
 
kwired said:
From the article in the OP:

"Today, water flows to where people demand it rather than to where nature intended, a tradition begun in the early 1900s and the sole reason the Southwest has attained the population it has today — although that achievement may not be sustainable."

Does it make sense to put so many people in a desert and then try to bring water to them?

Population is dwindling here, we also have plenty of water.
Click to expand...

35 years ago in Ag. School we were talking about the Ogallala Aquifer diminishing. Things must have improved a bit in Nebraska.

No, it doesn't make sense for so many people to be living here in the desert. The sun is nice, and we will have beach front property if California slides into the Pacific.
 
gar said:
161011-1538 EDT

Some interesting population data follows:

Code: 
Population in millions
Ratio/Year is the multiplier per year of the starting population to get the year ending population.
  
               Population
Time Range    Start     End       Ratio/Year

      10000   BC        170                  End of the recent ice age

Following are AD

   1 -  500    170      190       1.0002     Very close to not increasing

 500 - 1000    190      254       1.0006
1000 - 1500    254      425       1.001
1500 - 1800    425      813       1.002
1800 - 1900    813     1550       1.007
1900 - 1950   1550     2400       1.008
1950 - 1975   2400     4089       1.02
1975 - 2000   4089     6088       1.02
2000 - 2015   6088     7256       1.01

Very intetresting results if i did not make any mistakes. Note that we may now be starting to reduce the increase.

I have traced a possible ancestor back as far as 1040, and after about 1200 I started seeing some people live into their 80s.

1 and 2 % increases per year are really large numbers.

.
Click to expand...

Interestingly or otherwise, the population of China is increasing despite the one child per couple policy and very little net migration.
It can only be down to greater longevity.
 
David Goodman said:
35 years ago in Ag. School we were talking about the Ogallala Aquifer diminishing. Things must have improved a bit in Nebraska.

No, it doesn't make sense for so many people to be living here in the desert. The sun is nice, and we will have beach front property if California slides into the Pacific.
Click to expand...
It is being managed a little better then it once was. There is plenty of water in the aquifer, but crop irrigation is the biggest thing taking water out of it, not sure of what keeps it replenished, and not sure if the experts really know either. One used to be able to just drill a well wherever you wanted, there are more rules now and sometimes you can't get the well you want. Domestic wells are usually permitted, but have pumping limits before more restrictions apply.

Some natural resource districts have put flow meters on irrigation wells. Some may be to make sure you only pump so much water, some may just be for monitoring pumping data with no restrictions, so far.

Many farmers have made changes to irrigation systems as well to allow for use of less water. Better sprinkler packages is a start.
 
Besoeker said:
Interestingly or otherwise, the population of China is increasing despite the one child per couple policy and very little net migration.
It can only be down to greater longevity.
Click to expand...

People will over populate the earth until they get hungry enough to turn to cannibalism and then the population problem will solve it's self.
 
there is plenty of water. a few areas do not have plentiful cheap water.

it is getting more cost effective by the day to desalinate sea water and recycle sewer water, or stop using water to try and turn the deserts of CA into farmland.

There are plenty of solutions to this so called problem, but rather than spend the money to solve the problem people seem to want to make it worse.

It is a lot like the so called peak oil nonsense of a few decades ago when so called experts claimed the world was running our of oil. Turned out of course they were about as wrong as someone can be. It was just about money and when the price of oil went up a little it turned out that there was actually plenty of oil available.
 
petersonra said:
there is plenty of water. a few areas do not have plentiful cheap water.

it is getting more cost effective by the day to desalinate sea water and recycle sewer water, or stop using water to try and turn the deserts of CA into farmland.

There are plenty of solutions to this so called problem, but rather than spend the money to solve the problem people seem to want to make it worse.

It is a lot like the so called peak oil nonsense of a few decades ago when so called experts claimed the world was running our of oil. Turned out of course they were about as wrong as someone can be. It was just about money and when the price of oil went up a little it turned out that there was actually plenty of oil available.
Click to expand...
That is just it, plenty of water, not all of it is that usable. CA has more water then we do, but it is mostly salt water.

Farming CA deserts - you have year round or nearly year round growing seasons, but unfortunately there isn't naturally much fresh water to go with that.

There is a lot of sandy soil here that is not all that good for farming either, without pumping the water that is below the surface to use for irrigating the farm operation. Such soils don't hold moisture that well and need a lot more water then what is typically received via rainfall to successfully grow any crop on them. Before people settled here and tried to break the sod and farm the ground it was pretty stable grassland. With some variances as you approach rivers, lakes, streams. But you know how man wants to come and change things no matter where he goes.

There have been some people that think we should stop irrigated farming around here and pump our water to Texas or California, as it might make more money then the farming does.
 
kwired said:
There have been some people that think we should stop irrigated farming around here and pump our water to Texas or California, as it might make more money then the farming does.
Click to expand...

Might be a cost effective answer to problems at both ends of the pipeline.

A lot of areas that have cheap water for irrigation have not bought into water conservation in farming, even though it can be very cost effective.

Personally, I think that wind turbines driving desalination pumps off the coast of both TX and CA could be a pretty cost effective way of getting more usable water both places.
 
petersonra said:
It is a lot like the so called peak oil nonsense of a few decades ago when so called experts claimed the world was running our of oil. Turned out of course they were about as wrong as someone can be. It was just about money and when the price of oil went up a little it turned out that there was actually plenty of oil available.
Click to expand...
The only thing they were wrong about is the timeline. Oil is still being made, of course, but at a rate many, many orders of magnitude more slowly than we are using it up. Without a doubt, the supply curve and the demand curve will someday intersect; the only question is when that will happen.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Top