I was just recently fortunate enough to land a fairly sizeable job that I bid over 2 months ago and now I am in the process of shopping around for materials. Wire prices have significantly come down since I bid and now I am playing around with the idea that maybe they will come down a little more. I need approx. 100K feet of # 12 thhn and nearly 10K feet of 350kcmil for this project(those are just the large counts). My start date is about a month out and I was just curious as to what Ya'll thought as far as what the copper market is going to do. My current pricing is 67.68/M for #12 and 3528.13/M for 350. Should I buy now or wait a month?? I know this may sound a little greedy but my estimate had to be tight in order to win this job over 20 other bids and I already gambled with this one already....So should I "let it ride"?? or play it conservatively??
Wire Prices
- Thread starter Dr.Sparks
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billsnuff
Senior Member
- Location
- East of 480sparky
just google 'copper futures'
just google 'copper futures'
copper futures outlook is bleak, home starts are way down. Other than gold commodities are going to have a very rough time until some stability returns to the market.........even oil is under 50 bucks......JMSO
how often is your supplier changing prices? is he changing daily or is he sitting on a large inventory that he needs to get his capital out of before he drops his price?
just google 'copper futures'
copper futures outlook is bleak, home starts are way down. Other than gold commodities are going to have a very rough time until some stability returns to the market.........even oil is under 50 bucks......JMSO
how often is your supplier changing prices? is he changing daily or is he sitting on a large inventory that he needs to get his capital out of before he drops his price?
I go back and forth between 3 suppliers and I usually get a weekly price update from each of them. Typically they are very close to one another but just recently I have noticed that 1 of them is significantly lower. Which leads me to believe that the other 2 jumped the gun as soon as the market began to fall and now they are working off their surplus. I am hesitant to lock in on the 350's because it's not really a common size and in the event of a gross overestimate the left over would most likely sit around and gather dust. But on the other hand, if the market swings upwards....I could lose my shirt. Estimating has become such a crap shoot anymore....
charlietuna
Senior Member
Accept you present additional profit -- the economy is too unstable at this period ! Realize it could have gone the other way and you could have had the job AND THE ADDITIONAL COPPER INCREASE PRICE !
Fulthrotl
~Autocorrect is My Worst Enema.~
- Occupation
- E
don't know how long ago you bid it, but let's say you bid it at $5.00 a foot
on the 350's... so you are up $15,000 on that line item at this point....
lets say your quantities change, and you are 2,000 feet over.... that's
pretty extreme, but for the sake of argument....
now, you can either return the 350's, scrap it, sell it to someone else,
or have 2,000 feet of wire for free, and the next job that needs some
4/0 feeders, you size the conduit for 350's instead, and pull in free wire.
(i like free wire
)total upswing if you purchase today, with the parameters i mentioned above
is your profit goes up $15,000 + $7,000 in surplus material.
so, you are up $22,000 on a single commodities trade, on a volume of
$35,000. and this is a sure thing... no speculation. done deal.
ask any day trader if they would make that trade, on todays market.
your smaller wire sizes should yield similar results.
randy
Greg Swartz
Senior Member
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- Colorado Springs, Colorado
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