Deliveries/lead times are out of sight!

Status
Not open for further replies.
R

Ragin Cajun

Senior Member
Location
Upstate S.C.
Working on a construction estimate for a client.
Deliveries are:

MCC's - 8-12 months

Panelboards - 6-8 weeks
dry type transformers - 16-23 weeks

Between the horrible increase in cost of equipment and these lead times, I really don't see this project getting off the ground!

Sure glad retirement is in my face!
 
Ken_S said:
The lack of manufacturing production in this country has gotten to a point which drastically impacts our national defense, not to mention our ability to provide basic services.
Click to expand...
Looks like the trend reversed in 2010, but onshoring has been happening slowly since then, with a pandemic regression that is now over. Hopefully the recent trend line continues.

data.bls.gov

Bureau of Labor Statistics Data

data.bls.gov data.bls.gov

Of course, if US factories are getting more automated, then the employees per unit output will be decreasing, so just look at the employment number trend won't give the full picture as to manufacturing capacity.

Cheers, Wayne
 
Ken_S said:
Articles like this make my blood boil. The lack of manufacturing production in this country has gotten to a point which drastically impacts our national defense, not to mention our ability to provide basic services.
Click to expand...
Even if you disregard imports, many products (all products not just electrical equipment) have been consolidated into just a few big dogs in whatever industry applies and all the smaller ones went out of business and were bought out by those big dogs. The recent infant formula shortage is a good example. When so much of what is available to consumers all runs through only two or three major corporations and one of them has any kind of issue with being able to supply the product - there becomes a shortage across the board because that one company is a huge chunk of what is available.

That maybe not quite the same thing yet similar bottleneck occurs when a particular resource has to come from limited locations and there is something going on that holds up availability of that resource.
 
I’ve had better MCC lead times quoted lately, as in 20-22 weeks. You should shop around, unless there is a brand loyalty thing going on.

But yeah, the suckage is epic right now. I’m involved in a big project that has 18 pulse drives on it, we can get the drives themselves in 20 weeks, but the 18 pulse transformers are 12-14 months out!
 
I am not the electrical contractor, but a consulting engineer. My client needs a fairly a"accurate" [hah, in these times??]
The actual detailed design is after the project is approved. Personally, I wonder it it will ever actually happen. But, at least I have work to do the engineering estimate.

We did a similar project like this in 2010. I fully expect come the actual design time we will need to be "creative" in the power distribution area.

Thanks for the replies.
 
How about 46 week lead time for a CECHA listed OVERHEAD meter breaker combo ( 200 amp breaker)..... this has been a code requirement out here sonce the mid 1990's,

In northern IL where ComEd is the power Co, the meter trims have to have a CECHA mark on them, lest they wont set the meter.....

Finally found a meter trim without disconnect , guess I will have to do a meter trim, and disconnect .......

This is getting to be fun trying to give quotes on service upgrades so we can install EV chargers.....
 
wwhitney said:
Looks like the trend reversed in 2010, but onshoring has been happening slowly since then, with a pandemic regression that is now over. Hopefully the recent trend line continues.

data.bls.gov

Bureau of Labor Statistics Data

data.bls.gov data.bls.gov

Of course, if US factories are getting more automated, then the employees per unit output will be decreasing, so just look at the employment number trend won't give the full picture as to manufacturing capacity.

Cheers, Wayne
Click to expand...
The very definition of productivity. On the other hand, if on-shoring becomes a sustainable trend, employment numbers may improve anyway.
 
gadfly56 said:
The very definition of productivity. On the other hand, if on-shoring becomes a sustainable trend, employment numbers may improve anyway.
Click to expand...
My link was to the employment numbers, which have been improving since 2010 (except for the pandemic), although not very rapidly. My point was that since productivity was likely also improving, then total onshore production capacity was likely increasing more quickly than the employment numbers show.

Cheers, Wayne
 
wwhitney said:
My link was to the employment numbers, which have been improving since 2010 (except for the pandemic), although not very rapidly. My point was that since productivity was likely also improving, then total onshore production capacity was likely increasing more quickly than the employment numbers show.

Cheers, Wayne
Click to expand...
OK, I didn't see your point, my bad.
 
VirutalElectrician said:
With lead times so long, how does on plan for changes in the NEC that might happen between order and delivery?
Click to expand...
Here in NJ, there is usually a 6-month grace period from adoption to a hard requirement for compliance. Also, that is for when the permit is applied for. At the start of the grace period, you have to let the AHJ know which code cycle you're applying under. If you don't, they'll assume it's the new cycle. If you are approved under an old code cycle you don't have to update to new cycle requirement, even if you cross into a 2nd new cycle as long as construction is proceeding and they don't void your permit for lack of progress.
 
VirutalElectrician said:
With lead times so long, how does on plan for changes in the NEC that might happen between order and delivery?
Click to expand...
Some of us are wondering if we will even be using 2020 NEC or if we will go from 2017 to 2023. State legislature has to approve the change, last couple sessions the bill containing this change was low enough priority it never really made it to the floor before legislative session was over for the year.

I personally wouldn't mind if they reverted back to about 2005 NEC though. Many changes since have poor justification IMO.
 
ptonsparky said:
Visited my oldest in KC this weekend and commented that I wish I had AC in my new garage. She offered to set me up with a mini split, (Trane) but the wall units are 5 months out.
Click to expand...
You won't need it after another month from now for this season so order it and have it for next season.
 
Not too long ago, the Automation part of the company I work for was getting ready to purchase some equipment for a system we were going to be installing in Detroit. Among the many items we needed were some Ethernet cameras, medium pricey (~$1K each) and we needed a hundred or more. So not a tiny order.

The lead time (in weeks) from the vendor we sourced them from before was now listed as 40? - being raised in NY and having a good sense of humor I had to simply laugh at the question mark !

Now 40 weeks was bad enough (actually a hard NO for us) - but I wanted to call them and ask why put the ? in there. Were there not enough ASCII spaces in that web field to type...

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

or

We really have no idea!

or

Foorrrtttteeeee ???



It felt like the ? mark was just silly, but somehow honest too.

Tough times to be building just about anything.
 
gadfly56 said:
Why do I feel like it's the 1880's and we're all ordering from the Sears catalog, waiting for the Wells Fargo stage coach to come rollin' into town?
Click to expand...
Would probably be faster…

I’ve been reading some stuff from relatives who lived during the Civil War, letters to the family home in Kentucky that were preserved in a war museum. The relative I’m related to went west to California after the war to mine for gold and continued his letters home. One of them talks about how long it takes for goods to arrive at their mining claims, complaining that it sometimes took 3-4 months. HAH! We dream of lead times that short right now…
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Top