Mike, today's market is different, especially around here. If ir were a small home with no room for expansion or additions of pools or hot tubs than yes a smaller service could be used.
Why do you think we give it away. My customers pay for that 200 amp service whether they need it or not. I often give an option to go from 200 to 400 if the 200 service is maxed out.
Most of my customers will usually call back and want to add additions or pools and hot tubs.
I did a 2000 sq.ft existing house. The owners are friends---they had a 200 amp service but then added a garage with a future apartment, a hot tub, pool, and addition on the house, thinking about a sauna and are redoing the kitchen at some point with double ovens (electric) etc.
The house has a gas furnace and a/c. I m glad I used a 400 amp service cause who knows whats next--car chargers-- 2 maybe
Put 2 chargers at 50 amps each and all those mentioned above and the calculation gets pretty high