When you run the numbers on how few fires the AFCI will prevent, based on the fact that the fire cause and origin data shows 85% of the dwelling unit fires that are said to be of electrical origin, you will see that it will be many, many years before there will be any real data.
Using the available data, over the first 20 years of compliance with the 2014 AFCI rule, you would only expect to prevent ~14,000 fires. Also contrary to what many believe based on the pro-AFCI people, the percentage of dwelling unit fires that are said to be of electrical origin is less than 15% of the total dwelling unit fires.
Given the small percentage of dwelling unit electrical fires, we would be far ahead in preventing residential fire deaths and injuries, and in reducing fire loss costs if we would require residential fire sprinkler systems. Our city had added an amendment to our electrical code saying that if you install a NFPA compliant sprinkler system in a dwelling unit, you don't need to install AFCIs. We feel that the overall safety is improved by using sprinklers over using AFCIs. The elimination of the AFCIs provides about 25% of the money needed to install the sprinkler system. While there may be a couple more fires because the AFCI was not there to prevent them, the losses from all of the fires will still be less, and most all fire deaths would be eliminated, many injuries would be eliminated.