Suppose you are standing on damp ground with your bare feet in front of a main service panel...
If there is a ground rod at your feet, and a copper wire to the neutral bar, and a metal jumper between the neutral bar and the panel enclosure, then it is predictable that touching the box will not give you a shock, because almost all the current that might flow through you to the ground is already flowing on that wire. Touching the ungrounded conductor, by comparison, is likely to shock you. Similarly, say the ungrounded conductor's insulation is damaged by a tree somewhere. Any current that might flow through the tree to the earth to the spot your standing will flow through the rod and wire back to the neutral, and the amount that flows through you will likely be negligible.
Now remove the wire to the ground rod and the jumper to the box, but keep the damaged insulation in the tree. One conductor is connected to the damp ground beneath your feet through the tree. If you touch a terminal for the other conductor of the circuit, you are now the only and best path to complete the circuit through the tree. But you don't know which conductor is safe to touch and which will kill you.
It's a bit of an exaggerated scenario but it gives you the general theory.