In essence, are you trying to design a fuse?
It's been my experience that the results from a 10 minute test will trump the results from 3+ hours of math, every time.
I don't think it's possible to come up with a simplistic answer like such and such a metal of a certain diameter will melt at exactly a calculated current. There are other factors do be concerned with. What if you somehow come up with a value for a certain diameter, how will that transfer to a different shape?
I spent a couple years in R&D as a metallurgical technician. One of the projects designing superalloys for jet engines. EVERYTHING was tested. The math just got us in the ballpark. You will need to do a gradient test and identify the incipient melt point to come up with an exact phase change temp and that will only work for that specific shape / size, etc.
Also, your tests must be repeatable. Once you are comfortable with the results, then do the math. That is now that you have the answer, create the math that explains it. That will get you closer for the next test. Sorry, but that is just how it works. Math alone won't do it.