One for the doom and gloom crowd

[peter d]

I just read a quick blurb in the local rag that the New Haven, CT area has $1.5 billion worth of mixed use development in the pipeline for the next few years. Me thinks this is the place to be if you want to stay busy and you can travel a bit.

 

[nolabama]

new orleans added 6000 jobs last quarter?/month? we are an anomoly though - fema money is still coming and with the new school system that must be totally rebuilt we should be busy for a while

 

[mdshunk]

Last week, new mortgage applications went up 112% nationwide. The sky never was falling.

 

[peter d]

Last week, new mortgage applications went up 112% nationwide.

Without researching that statistic, that's probably because falling prices of housing and foreclosures are making many homes available to those who couldn't afford them last time around.

 

[mdshunk]

Without researching that statistic, that's probably because falling prices of housing and foreclosures are making many homes available to those who couldn't afford them last time around.

Probably so. The market has a tremendous built-in tendency towards self preservation. After a market induced price correction in the housing market, now more people will become homeowners. I think it's a great thing.

 

[Pierre C Belarge]

Last week, new mortgage applications went up 112% nationwide. The sky never was falling.

112% is relative.

112% of 100 = 112

112% of 1 = 1.12

So, it is 112% of what?

 

[Pierre C Belarge]

Probably so. The market has a tremendous built-in tendency towards self preservation. After a market induced price correction in the housing market, now more people will become homeowners. I think it's a great thing.

Again, this will be true over time.

But for now, we have seen a true number, 530,000 people loose their jobs last month, with up to 10,000,000 million people out of work.

Lets see what happens after the holidays, I think we will have a better idea.

What about the effect of the Fed printing so much new money daily? This cannot be a good thing for the everyday joe...

Words like deflation, inflation, etc... come to mind

 

[peter d]

The national unemployment rate is 6.7% or thereabouts. That means that 93.3% of people are still working. Is the glass half full or half empty?

As for the Monololy money that is being printed daily and being borrowed from our friends in Saudi Arabia and China, that surely is a cause for concern. That will lead to inflation and ultimately price controls. That has the potential to get really ugly.

 

[Pierre C Belarge]

The national unemployment rate is 6.7% or thereabouts. That means that 93.3% of people are still working. Is the glass half full or half empty?
.

The question that begs answering of the 93.% is, how long can they support the 7.7% and growing unemployed???

 

[480sparky]

....with up to 10,000,000 million people out of work......

Ten trillion people?

I didn't know there was much more than 6 billion right now.

 

[russ]

It's never a recession, unless your the one not working.

 

[acrwc10]

The national unemployment rate is 6.7% or thereabouts. That means that 93.3% of people are still working. Is the glass half full or half empty?

As for the Monololy money that is being printed daily and being borrowed from our friends in Saudi Arabia and China, that surely is a cause for concern. That will lead to inflation and ultimately price controls. That has the potential to get really ugly.

The problem with just quoting statistics is what are they based on ? The % of people unemployed has historically been taken of the numbers of people on "unemployment" when that runs out for them they are no longer on the rolls and not counted as unemployed any longer. So I stick with the quote "statistics lie and lier's use statistics" ( no I am not calling you a lier Peter )
By the way what does this have to do with the NEC ? Isn't the home loan/unemployment forum on another web sight ?

 

[petersonra]

The national unemployment rate is 6.7% or thereabouts. That means that 93.3% of people are still working. Is the glass half full or half empty?

It means 93.3% of the labor force is working. IIRC, not even a third of the population is included in the labor force.

 

[petersonra]

The problem with just quoting statistics is what are they based on ? The % of people unemployed has historically been taken of the numbers of people on "unemployment" when that runs out for them they are no longer on the rolls and not counted as unemployed any longer.

people who enter the labor force, and those whose unemployment benefits have run out are still counted as unemployed, even though neither receives unemployment benefits.

so called "discouraged" workers are not counted as unemployed. those are people who leave the labor force voluntarily (i.e.-they basically stop looking for work).

 

[ivsenroute]

I can be in New Haven in 3-1/2 hours, dead east of here.

From what I understand:

Department of Public Safety, Division of Fire, Emergency and Building Services runs the show.

2005 NEC enforced and possibly the 2008 this month??

Electricall Inspectors, Electricians and Contractors all need to be licensed.

 

[russ]

November Bloodletting, as Employers Shed Jobs
By KELLY CURRAN
December 5, 2008

The U.S. Labor department was the bearer of yet more bad news Friday, when it reported the nationwide unemployment rate reached an astounding 6.7 percent in November, shedding 533,000 nonfarm jobs ? the 11th straight monthly decline and the largest since December of 1974.

It?s only the fourth time in the past 58 years that payrolls have fallen by more than 500,000 in a month, according to a Market Watch report.

?This is a huge downshift, much larger than we thought,? Jared Bernstein, an economist at the Economic Policy Institute in Washington, who will be Vice President-elect Joe Biden?s chief economist in the new administration, told Bloomberg News.

These guys (U.S. Labor dept.) probably don't know what their talking about anyhow.

 

[acrwc10]

November Bloodletting, as Employers Shed Jobs
By KELLY CURRAN
December 5, 2008

The U.S. Labor department was the bearer of yet more bad news Friday, when it reported the nationwide unemployment rate reached an astounding 6.7 percent in November, shedding 533,000 nonfarm jobs ? the 11th straight monthly decline and the largest since December of 1974.

It?s only the fourth time in the past 58 years that payrolls have fallen by more than 500,000 in a month, according to a Market Watch report.

?This is a huge downshift, much larger than we thought,? Jared Bernstein, an economist at the Economic Policy Institute in Washington, who will be Vice President-elect Joe Biden?s chief economist in the new administration, told Bloomberg News.

These guys (U.S. Labor dept.) probably don't know what their talking about anyhow.

If you saw Greenspan testifying before Congress, you know their comments are little more then "their best guess".

 

[480sparky]

It's never a recession, unless your the one not working.

Is that why Dubya is finally saying the 'R' word?:smile:

 

[e57]

IMO we need to look to the words, "Only Thing We Have to Fear Is Fear Itself" - and the context in which they were said. (read the full text and look for the parallels.)

In the current economy - I won't belittle those out of work, but they should ask how they got there - either by their own decisions or out of the piss-poor decisions of of money-changer people chucking the entire world economy into the ether to see what they can scape up everyday. Some of which have actually manipulated the fall of some prices to their benifit, at the expense of EVERYONE.

Either way, I think we should all think of how and why we are in the predicament we're in now, and make some serious changes. One of which would not allowing the media, or our elected leaders to push this doom and gloom for their own benefit, or bail out companies doomed to fail out of some sort of nostalgia for an industrial hey-day long gone, and CEO's who get paid >$14.2 million/yr, while the rest of us make/take home , </=$70K and struggle with it...

I will now kick the soap box into the fleeing crowd....

 

[peter d]

I can be in New Haven in 3-1/2 hours, dead east of here.

Electricall Inspectors, Electricians and Contractors all need to be licensed.

Yup, that's all true. Although we've debated the merits of licensing here many times before, licensing in New England does prevent an out of state contractor from blowing into town and hiring day laborers for help.

And guess what? If an out of state electrician is jobless, he'll be in the testing center as fast as he can get there to get a Connecticut license so he can start working.