Wayne would have to do the math for me.
So, if the sun is at an elevation angle E above the horizon, and at an azimuth A, where 0 degrees is towards the equator (not sure if that's a standard choice or not), then the coordinates of the unit vector S pointing to the sun can be taken to be
S=(sin A cos E, cos A cos E, sin E).
The above formulation implies positive y is towards the equator, and positive x coincides with positive A. The tracker unit normal T is more naturally parameterized by the elevation angle E' relative to the direction (1,0,0), in which case
T = (cos E', 0, sin E').
In that formulation E' varies from 0 to 180 degrees, although the tracker under discussion can only only do E' from 45 degrees to 135 degrees. Then the geometric factor F for solar irradiance on the panel is given by the dot product
F = T dot S = sin A cos E cos E' + sin E sin E'
The choice of E' for which F will be maximized will occur when
dF/dE' = 0, or
sin A cos E sin E' = sin E cos E', or
tan E' = tan E / sin A.
Here we see that when A = 0, i.e. the sun is towards the equator, tan E' should be infinite, i.e. E' = 90 degrees, and having the tracker straight up maximizes the geometric factor (as must be true by symmetry). Then for A > 0 we have E' < 90 degrees, and for A < 0 we get E' > 90 degrees.
Note that unless the sun is due east or west (sin A = +/- 1), the tracker elevation angle (in the usual sense, only equal to E' for positive A) will not match the sun elevation angle. Instead the tracker elevation angle will be higher (tan E' larger in magnitude) as |sin A| < 1.
Now we should substitute the solution for E' into the formula for F to get an expression for F in terms of A and E, but the trig is a bit too messy for me at this hour. Once you have that, you can figure out the formula for A and E over the course of a day for a given day to get the shape of the graph in the OP.
Cheers, Wayne