I have seen LED lighting 'oversold' for years. As LEDs have steadily climbed in efficiency they seem to always be sold as being better then they really are. I agree with Electric Light that they are being used faddishly even where they do not make sense.
I think it's just another form of a light emitting product. The typical marketing and special treatment they're getting need to get addressed. People generally don't understand lighting in depth. LED or fluorescent, and the fact that most LED lighting are solid state fluorescent lamps. Everything should have descriptive names and condensed into slangs rather than some word games to beat around the bush. LED marketing go through a great length to disassociate and avoid any connotation with fluorescent lamps.
pcLED, blue pumped Phosphor coupled LED, remote phosphor LED, solid state lighting just to avoid the words "fluorescent" and "ballast" to get people to think they have almost nothing in common. Solid state fluorescent lamp, LED activated fluorescent lamp are much more accurate.
"I thought LEDs are always more efficient..." "I thought LEDs make almost no heat" "LEDs have no ballast to fail". LED sales reps are misinformed about both LEDs and fluorescent. Many decision makers, such as board of directors of small organizations are excessively dependent on sales reps for information and they often don't have straight forward information on all available means of lighting to chose from.
"fluorescent lighting requires compromise in almost every way: from flickering and inadequate dimming to mercury use and poor-quality "
This is a quote from Cree's Product Portfolio Manager, Jeff Hungarter. Many in the field have never even seen 0-10v dimming. When these people hear something like that from a Cree factory dude, they tend to believe it just based on his credentials. So it's very disturbing that someone speaking for Cree has no clue what he's talking about. T5, T8, T12 and CFL all dim very well without flickering in the context of commercial lighting which is what the article is about.
https://www.creelink.com/exLink.asp?19706952OV78E19I37602548
With that said, it seems clear to me that LEDs are (and should be treated as) a real contender for many lighting applications.
I suppose.
1) LEDs have efficiency on par with conventional fluorescent lighting at much smaller scales. As replacements for incandescent lamps they are IMHO fantastic.
What's conventional? CFLs tend to be less efficient largely because of trapped light from inner facing section of spiral. For 800 lm and above, they're still not competitive without a subsidy.
LED bulbs have been going downhill in the last few months and they are still very expensive costing $7-10 for the basic 60W equivalent lamp. Single packs often cost less per lamp than four or six packs probably due to subsidies. First generation Cree bulb was 84 LPW. Second generation slouched down to 75 LPW while 13W CFLs are 62 LPW. Keep in mind that these are initial performance. These consumer LEDs are rated 25,000 hr to L70 30% decay and we are seeing 10-12,000 hr rated CFLs, so the life advantage gap for LEDs is shrinking. The solid state compact fluorescent lamp is projected to degrade to 56 LPW, so they still have a miniscule advantage over traditional CFLs, but at three times the price.
2) LEDs perform well in cold temperatures. The efficiency of conventional fluorescent lighting tends to drop as ambient temperature goes down; the efficiency of LEDs tend to go up. LEDs in refrigerated cases and freezers make good sense.
LED is the clear leader in relatively low light output requirement like display cases. Although the advantage is not so clear for higher output lighting such as high bay in refrigerated storage as F54T5HO run at high enough power density that they can actually keep themselves warm enough for full performance within enclosed fixtures.
3) LEDs have much higher lumen densities than conventional fluorescent lighting; this is important for applications where the output needs to be focused.
Conventional fluorescent lamps are essentially useless for that. So, incandescent and HIDs dominate those applications and solid state fluorescent lamps as well as high(er) intensity gaseous fluorescent lamps such as electrodeless lamps have potential.
4) As has been observed, most white LEDs are a type of fluorescent lighting, depending upon phosphors (which degrade) to get the white light. IMHO the available phosphors for solid state fluorescent devices seems to give a smoother spectrum than most fluorescent lighting.
5) LED degradation is often specified to a rather high allowed level, and this needs to be understood in the energy savings calculation.
The substandard threshold is probably used to evade warranty obligations while they're testing the water, which is not acceptable. The risk needs to remain with the manufacturer in order to have a predictable ROI. Old F40T12/CW is rated 20,000 hr average life. 3050 initial and 2680 lm after 8,000 hrs or 88% "mean lumen". RE80 T8s hold over 90% over the entire useful life.
The depreciation amount is well documented and understood. Solid state lighting interest group lowered the bar to 70% for LEDs. LED life is *ESTIMATED* hours until 30% output loss, however, this is usually also the warranty threshold, so a decay to 75% within the first year and gradually losing the remaining 5% over the rest of life would not be covered under warranty. This level of depreciation is totally unacceptable for any fluorescent substitute.
30% decay allowance is worse than a freaking F40CW. It's only beat by quartz metal halide. It falls short of HPS, LPS as well as the latest CMH technology.
6) LED technology is evolving rapidly, and failure modes (and rates) are not fully understood. I suspect that lots of municipalities will be surprised by the upkeep of LED street lights, for example.
I think they're starting to understand it better and with better understanding, I think they're stretching the limits of 70% loss and making faster decaying LEDs to lower production cost. Even A19 bulbs cost several times the cost of CFLs at 60W size. 75W and 100W sizes have an even larger gap.
7) For bulk room/office/shop lighting I think that conventional T8 lamps make far more sense than LEDs.
8) I don't think that linear LED retrofits ever make sense. Right now the conventional T8 lamps are more efficient and much less expensive, and in the future if LEDs become even better (which I expect), then a fully designed system will make more sense than a drop-in.
The tremendous unsubsidized cost of fixtures having a maintained efficacy over 80 LPW (power wires to out the fixture efficiency) would not yield an acceptable ROI over T5 or T8. The standard I use is 10% rate of return with 3 year PBP.
9) The degradation of LEDs is thermally driven. It is very easy to push an LED to operate at high power levels, if you don't mind giving up life. A great way to make a cheap product that looks good initially, but doesn't last.
Thermal and current. Given the same junction temperature, LEDs degrade faster at higher current. Also, higher ambient air will increase decay rate of plastic encapsulation. LED encapsulation yellows. Fluorescent lamp glass does not. Glass encapsulated LEDs are prohibitively expensive.
10) LEDs in a sporting arena? I don't know. I guess they can fairly claim a 75% reduction in energy use, but I wonder what the reduction would be if they'd replaced with the most current HID lighting. The LEDs are not using 75% energy then the best available HID lighting with the same output. The 'restrike' time issue is a big win for LEDs... I don't think you could reasonably light a stadium with T8 lamps, however
-Jon
However, electrodeless HIDs are a real possibility such as Luxim electrodeless metal halide and LG's suflur lamp.