What About You? What About the Downturn?

[dezwitinc]

Just wondering what the state of affairs is around other parts of the country during this "downturn".
Personally, I am finding that many commercial/industrial contractors in South Florida are having a hard time keeping up with bidding and the work that they are getting in the commercial market. I know that we are.
The problem is that too many contractors are living in a totally negative funk, running scared, and giving the work away for "cost" which is doing nothing but drive prices down and make it difficult for anyone to make a living.
I understand that many people are laid off but at the same time if we do not hold our heads high and gaze into the distance, there is no way to recover.
While the sky is falling (or at least getting a little lower), we have to remember that we live in the greatest country in the world with the most innovative people and that the future still lies before us and that we will survive.
Our leaders seem to have fallen into this same funk but if the people behind them can look for the silver lining, perhaps we can show them the way to a bright future.

 

[SEO]

Work is slow in Michigan as is in most of the country. I agree it seems that contractors are giving their work away.

 

[peter d]

As I'm under 30, this is the first real economic downturn I have been through while in the workforce. After I returned from vacation last week my boss had to cut me back to a part time status. I would go look for another job, but there aren't any and there are many others who are in the same situation as I am or worse. I'm currently mulling over several options which include self employment, relocating, and changing careers entirely.

 

[CopperTone]

pretty bad in massachusetts. Residential is completely dead - some/little service work for existing customers.
At cost work seems to win the bids the past 6 months for commercial work.
I have resisted this tactic - however - I'm starting to look down that road if things don't stimulate soon.

Can someone talk some sense into me?

 

[Curtis4President]

We went to a job walk thru for the fire dept. Near Seattle, when we showed up there were 10 people there already. At the beginning of the meeting there were at least 45 people there. All contractors all people looking for work. This was a small kitchen remodel for the city of Bellevue. Hopefully our bid is good enough to get it. But who knows? Work is scarce, pleanty of contractors to do the work. I just hope we survive the down turn, its going to get better just WHEN.......:grin:

 

[Mr. Wizard]

As I'm under 30, this is the first real economic downturn I have been through while in the workforce. After I returned from vacation last week my boss had to cut me back to a part time status. I would go look for another job, but there aren't any and there are many others who are in the same situation as I am or worse. I'm currently mulling over several options which include self employment, relocating, and changing careers entirely.:-?

Peter D, if this crappy economy has you considering a career change, re-think your strategy. It sucks everywhere, and when things pick back up, it's gonna be balls to the wall. I've seen it before. Every person, place, and business requires electricity to operate. And regardless how long this mess lasts, those electrical consumers are going to need people to install, maintain, and troubleshoot their systems. But if there are reasons other than the economy thats got you thinking like that, thats something different.

 

[stickboy1375]

and changing careers entirely.

I would do this in a heartbeat at your age, your young enough to see how bad this trade really is. Nothing is going to change about it.

 

[chris kennedy]

Personally, I am finding that many commercial/industrial contractors in South Florida are having a hard time keeping up with bidding

Less coming across our desk than in the past. I'm still working 6 days a week. Our company has hire 6 to 8 guys in the last month. Got a PM from another member here in my area that is looking for help.

I understand that many people are laid off but at the same time if we do not hold our heads high and gaze into the distance, there is no way to recover.
While the sky is falling (or at least getting a little lower), we have to remember that we live in the greatest country in the world with the most innovative people and that the future still lies before us and that we will survive.
Our leaders seem to have fallen into this same funk but if the people behind them can look for the silver lining, perhaps we can show them the way to a bright future.

Nice Doug, well said.

 

[SparknMike]

While I won't go into my own views as to where we are and how we got there I will comment on my section of the world.

It seems that last year corporations pushed back capital projects and ended up doing quite a bit of business right around the end of Q3 and the beginning of Q4. This created quite a few jobs right at the end of the year.

This year it seems like very few capital projects are being approved. Because of this, at least from my point of view, 2009 is going to be a very slow year. What projects do happen are going to be under pressure to keep the price points as low as possible, and if the price point doesn't look favorable they may pull the plug ( ) and decide to postpone till 2010.

 

[Mr. Wizard]

I would do this in a heartbeat at your age, your young enough to see how bad this trade really is. Nothing is going to change about it.

I couldn't count on all my fingers and toes how many times I wanted to kick myself in the butt for getting into the trade. Reminds me of an old boss I had about 10, 12 odd years ago. His favorite question to new arrivals on site was, "are you a electician, or are you a dumbass?". My response was "I'm a dumbass for being an electrician". But for nearly 20 years it has put food on the table and paid the bills. Lots of good times, but lots of bad ones, too. Just roll with the punches, but at the end of the day you got to do what you got to do.

 

[dezwitinc]

Can someone talk some sense into me?

The problem with doing a job for "cost" is that you are really never doing it for cost.
Cost is not just the price of material , equipment, and labor but also rent, phones, taxes, trucks, insurance, etal.
This is an ugly trap to fall into and will lead to your downfall as quickly as any mistake that you can make.
I think that I would rather go out of business because I don't have any work than go out of business because the work was costing me money.

 

[stickboy1375]

I couldn't count on all my fingers and toes how many times I wanted to kick myself in the butt for getting into the trade. Reminds me of an old boss I had about 10, 12 odd years ago. His favorite question to new arrivals on site was, "are you a electician, or are you a dumbass?". My response was "I'm a dumbass for being an electrician". But for nearly 20 years it has put food on the table and paid the bills. Lots of good times, but lots of bad ones, too. Just roll with the punches, but at the end of the day you got to do what you got to do.

I could not agree more with you, it pays the bills, but the job still stinks, I turn anyone young away from the trade, but thats like telling someone not to get married. :roll::grin:

 

[GUNNING]

Power of Positive Thinking. It Works. So does GOV stimulous checks.

Power of Positive Thinking. It Works. So does GOV stimulous checks.

Its getting better. From no work to a couple of calls a week. I took MD's advice and increased my advertising budget. It worked. Now Im just drowning and flowndering on the service of the pool, not holding onto a concrete block and at the bottom of the pool. Ive seen trucks on the interstate, there were none from labor day till the new year. No FedEx, UPS, Roadway, etc. People are remodeling kitchens bathrooms and enclosing porches again. Its a start

 

[SEO]

I stared in business in 1974 times were tough then, times got better. Then 1982 thru aprox 1986 times were bad again, (interest rates on comm notes as high as 18 to 21 %) then we went thru the roaring 90's times were great then 911 hit and times started down to present. I don't know if we hit bottom yet but I have a lot of confidence that the economy will rebound.

 

[Fulthrotl]

Just wondering what the state of affairs is around other parts of the country during this "downturn".

you can call it any word you are comfortable with. i'll use "depression".

right now, there are more people to do work, especially in building trades,
than there is work to do. in looking at what work there is to do, there's gonna
be a ton of people diving on every job. in my opinion, getting work in the next
12 months is going to be difficult unless you are willing to do it for free....
no matter what job you are bidding on, there is someone willing to fall on a
grenade to take it away from you. and they will. and they will go broke trying
to do it. and you'll pick up some of those incomplete projects.

i see about 6 months of cripplingly bad economics ahead of us. if you are still
standing at the end of this year, there will be work available to do.... next
year. so, as i see it, if you can keep your people working this year, you'll have
staffing in place for when opportunity rears it's ugly head.

there's been a ton of posts about this stuff in general, and i've read a bunch
of it here, on a number of threads... and one thing that i've been left with,
over and over, is that i've heard this before.... and i'll say where......

in the late '70's, listening to the guys down at the hall complain that they
couldn't take a cut in standard of living, couldn't give up this, or that.....

this isn't a pro, or anti, organized labor position. let's not get all spooled up
about *that*, please..... i'm just saying where i've heard this before.

it's just that a bunch of the posts on here have the same taste of those
guys complaining about being undercut, 30 years ago.... those guys, at that
time, had 85% of the work being done in their geographic area.... and they
sounded like a lot of what i'm reading here.... i won't do it for that, i won't
make this concession, or that one.

and the buisness model changed, and they loundly complained, and did not
see the need to adapt.... a creature that does not adapt to it's environment
does not survive.

and that group of people, today, has a lock on 15% of the work. except that
15% of not very much work is not very much at all. there is one two week
job on the list, and i think it's the first one this week...... at the bottom of
the work available page is the following statement:

"TO APPLY FOR EXTENDED UNEMPLOYMENT BENEFITS, APPLY ONLINE
THROUGH THE EDD AT www.edd.ca.gov OR CALL 1-800-300-5516"

again, this is not a pro/anti organized labor post. everyone is scared right
now. but a lot of the sentiment i've seen posted here recently reminds me
of things said by people who went from 85% of the work to 15% of the work
in 15 years.

that's my nickels worth.


randy

 

[hardworkingstiff]

I don't know if we hit bottom yet but I have a lot of confidence that the economy will rebound.

I believe people said that in 1931, 1932, 1933, 1934, 1935, ..... until...... WWII. It's my understanding that the economic downturn was still lingering at the beginning of WWII.

If you purchased a home in 1929 before the "crash", it took 24 years for you to get back to even. FDR spent to get the economy going. It didn't work then and probably won't work now. It may keep us from the most desolate times, but it won't revive the economy. We have to pay for the extravagances of the 90's and that will take time.

Google Peter Schiff to see some interesting ideas. Some of it is scary. I hope his most dire concerns are not materialized, but I can see the possibilities of them coming to fruition.

 

[electricmanscott]

It's funny that based on the current hot topic, (sports, weather, economy etc) everybody becomes an expert. Guess what, you don't know what you are talking about that's why your thoughts go no farther than an internet meassage board. (see new siganture) :grin: Not pointed at anyone specific just an observation.

Pete, if you have a good idea if where you want to go I say go for it.

Everybody else, hold your prices, continue business as usual.

 

[busman]

It's also important to remember that for Residential this is the SLOW time of year. That period between when people start seeing bills for Christmas travel/presents/parties and the time the Tax Refund Checks/Spring arrive. Usually mid-January thru first of March.

Mark

 

[greg y]

After reading some of these post i am glad with the small company i am with we are busy and getting busier everyday with new jobs coming in.

 

[petersonra]

so far the company I work for is doing well. and it looks like that will continue into the late spring. no way of knowing much beyond that.

otoh, i know people who have been out of work, or working very short hours for many months.

one guy had his hours cut from 60 to 30 per week. he had already opened up a business in his basement and is not unhappy with the money it is bringing in. he started a gun shop in his basement just in time for the new president to provide a serious boost to gun sellers. they cannot keep them on the shelves, especially ones in danger of being banned. ammo is hard to come by too, so he started making and selling his own.

i am going to bet that a lot of tradesmen are going to have to find employment outside of their trade, at least for some period of time.