AFCI BERAKER

[user 100]

Does the statistical decrease in fires correspond just as well to the widespread introduction of GFCIs as it does to AFCIs?
Has anyone tried that analysis, or have they just looked at correlations with electrocutions?

Supposedly the number of residential fires of electrical origin has been falling for decades now and how much of that is due to gfci is anybodys guess. We know that gfcis have prevented some fires, but we have also developed better magnetic ocpds, we also have more forgiving splicing methods and more durable fire resistant materials( plastic coated wire nuts vs. crimps and friction tape and plastic sheathed cords and nm vs. cloth rayon etc) and the public (nonsense emanating from diy sites notwithstanding) has gotten a little smarter about the risk of electrical fires and that has probably played a small part. And we have also gotten that much further away from poorly terminated al nm and bx w/out the bonding strip and those legacy systems still in place are on the decline as they are getting steadily replaced by newer and safer.

 

[ActionDave]

......I can't put my finger on exactly why you are so angry and negative about the electrical industry, but it is certainly directed at the wrong people...

I can. The manufacturers have managed to get AFCIs into the code with ZERO evidence they do anything worthwhile.

 

[mbrooke]

AFCI requirements have been accepted by three different CMPs (2, 4, 18). Each individual and organization represented on those panels have had years - a decade - to research, review and study AFCI technology and USFA fire stats. And the data provided to the CMPs is independently produced by the USFA and CPSC, not NEMA or the AFCI manufacturers.

But my understanding was the CPSC's original concern was arcing cords, how did their concern get to in wall wiring?

The data does show that residential fires are on the decline:

For the years 2009-2011, there was an average of 25,900 residential electrical fires. This resulted in 280 deaths, 1,125 injuries, and $1.1 billion in property losses. For the years 2011-2013, there was and average of 23,490 residential electrical fires. This is a decrease of 2,410 fires per year. Deaths during these years have decreased to 159 from 280. Injuries are down to 827 from 1,125. And property losses are down to just over $500 million from just over $1 billion.

Assuming the data is fact, that would mean 2,410 homes less then 15 years old were prevented from catching fire. This is odd, as most fires are in old home? Or am I wrong?

Now nobody is claiming this substantial reduction in residential electrical fires can be attributed to AFCIs alone.

Thats true, there is simply no proof. And to be honest such a leap in fire reduction regarding less then 15 year old homes raises a red flag...

But, there is plenty of evidence buried within these numbers that show fires as a result of arcing in malfunctioning wiring, cords, and devices have declined at the same rate. This reduction in fires can be attributed to AFCIs.

Can you show me that evidence? How many fires were investigated in depth and how was that conclusion of arcing reached in those cases?

I am well aware of laboratory data where conditioned cords are subjected to over 10,000 volts to create self sustained arcing so yes that would be lab evidence, but how was it confirmed that applies to the real world? And to what degree?

Let's look at this another way. The states that do not currently enforce AFCI requirements have much higher rates of residential fire and fire deaths as compared to those states that do enforce AFCI requirements. The two most residential fire-prone states in the south are Alabama and Mississippi. These two states also happen to have no state mandate for NEC adoption. However, states like Texas and Florida have significantly lower fire and fire deaths rates even though they are much bigger and more greatly populated. These two states happen to have a strong state mandate for NEC code adoption and enforcement. This is not a coincidence.

I think you answered the question here imo:

The two most residential fire-prone states in the south are Alabama and Mississippi. These two states also happen to have no state mandate for NEC adoption.

That is not a fair comparison. If the NEC is not enforced people could get away with wiring ranges with lamp cords. Any number of dangerous violations could be taking place which are responsible for those elevated fires, not just missing AFCIs.

AFCIs are saving lives and property. And that is the exactly the purpose of the NEC.

No one is denying that to be the purpose of the NEC, but in so far we have yet to see proof how arcing is behind 30,000 home fires. Lab testing engineered to get the results you want to see it not the same as real world proof.

 

[mbrooke]

Tossing this in as well (the peak of 120 is about 170):

 

[mbrooke]

Supposedly the number of residential fires of electrical origin has been falling for decades now and how much of that is due to gfci is anybodys guess. We know that gfcis have prevented some fires, but we have also developed better magnetic ocpds, we also have more forgiving splicing methods and more durable fire resistant materials( plastic coated wire nuts vs. crimps and friction tape and plastic sheathed cords and nm vs. cloth rayon etc) and the public (nonsense emanating from diy sites notwithstanding) has gotten a little smarter about the risk of electrical fires and that has probably played a small part. And we have also gotten that much further away from poorly terminated al nm and bx w/out the bonding strip and those legacy systems still in place are on the decline as they are getting steadily replaced by newer and safer.

I think added receptacles per foot (reducing extension cords), more older homes being upgraded with new wiring, more knowledge to DIYs, public awareness, ect is playing a big role. I agree with the above.

 

[user 100]

I think added receptacles per foot (reducing extension cords).....

And lets not forget that many areas have tightened up on licensing and the subsequent fines, laws, etc-sure to have had some effect also. It really has been more of a combination when it comes to fires than any one thing.

 

[mbrooke]

And lets not forget that many areas have tightened up on licensing and the subsequent fines, laws, etc-sure to have had some effect also. It really has been more of a combination when it comes to fires than any one thing.

I agree. The dedicated 20amp requirement in baths was a good idea also. Many factors coming together are bring down fires.

 

[mbrooke]

Well, that's too bad you feel that way. My employer doesn't dictate who I am personally and professionally. My personal and professional ethics would never be compromised by my own profit motive or of that of the NEMA member companies I represent. My service to the electrical industry is above reproach.

Of course, but employers choose who gets hired based on traits deemed desirable for the job...

There is no reporting system in place to provide those specific stats. Homeowners and contractors don't notify the local building/fire department when a fire doesn't occur.

Thats true, but when a fire does occur how is it determined that its of electrical origin much less an arc fault? My understanding is that unless a fire is considered criminal or loss of life has taken place an in depth investigation is not performed.

The same is true for GFCIs. There is no way to know how many people were NOT shocked or electrocuted due to GFCI protection. But we do know there are significantly fewer electrocutions year after year that correlate with the increase and expansion of GFCIs.

GFCIs came about to solve an inconvenient fact that many metal case consumer goods only came with a 2 prong plug. Mandating a ground pin on all none double insulated appliances would have done the same with less cost.

There is a positive correlation between the increase and expansion of AFCIs with the reduction of fires and fire deaths. Again, are there other contributing factors? Yes. But AFCIs are a significant factor that is contributing to the lives and property being saved.

AFCIs have been mandated for only 15 years in bedrooms and 8 years in other rooms. A 2000+ reduction in home fires would mean newer homes are burning more then old ones something I find hard to believe.

AFCIs are not the one and only solution to the residential fire problem. Many other requirements of the NEC and IRC are also significant contributing factors.

It has NEVER been proven or shown that 30,000 home fires are the result of arcing. Subjecting lamp cords to 15,000 volts is nothing more then hearsay when it comes to the real world.

 

[user 100]

AFCIs have been mandated for only 15 years in bedrooms and 8 years in other rooms. A 2000+ reduction in home fires would mean newer homes are burning more then old ones something I find hard to believe.

Excellent point. Wiring errors do occur in new cons and yes, fires occur as a result, but I think you would be hard pressed to find an epidemic of fires in newer residential installs-it simply doesn't exist and didn't before afci.

 

[mbrooke]

Excellent point. Wiring errors do occur in new cons and yes, fires occur as a result, but I think you would be hard pressed to find an epidemic of fires in newer residential installs-it simply doesn't exist and didn't before afci.

Of course, which leads me to believe the decline in fires is coming from all homes, not just new homes with AFCIs being installed.

As Ive said, If arc mitigation technology worked so well fire statistics would be sharply dropping all over the globe.

 

[romex jockey]

NEMA is no more concerned about the integrity of the electrical trade than Big Oil is about pollution, or Wall street about our retirement funds


Their marketing of afci technology echos our lack of basic electrical theory juxtaposed with the collection of contrived statistics

~RJ~

 

[romex jockey]

UL 1699

UL 1699

Maybe the NEMA cheerleaders would kindly unfuzz us

Please tell us why UL created a standard?

To my knowledge, any given manufacturers tested towards the claims they make

UL does not create a standard for the validation of product

~RJ~

 

[chilada]

Ok, so what about the fella at a welding shop that accidentally leaves his welder on at quittin time. He isn't an electrician, but he did sleep at a Holiday Inn. He put his own cord cap on. The braided wire frays and creates an arc flash. It blows molten copper on a leaky oxygen tank and it explodes. What then?

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[mbrooke]

Ok, so what about the fella at a welding shop that accidentally leaves his welder on at quittin time. He isn't an electrician, but he did sleep at a Holiday Inn. He put his own cord cap on. The braided wire frays and creates an arc flash. It blows molten copper on a leaky oxygen tank and it explodes. What then?

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It becomes a static to push new safety requirements.

Little do people know most statics come from this:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zpDL16PY9kI

 

[chilada]

Static?

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[mbrooke]

And oh, the reasoning to the above:

" hahaha....This has worked fine for months now, I did not want to spend hundreds of dollars for outdoor rated sub panels and the like, so I didn't! And the result has been trouble free operation of my air compressor, fan, laptop, you name it. It was explained to me that the electrical component that is plugged in will only draw as much power as what it uses, unless it messes up and shorts out or something, and let's be honest, how many newer appliances have you ever seen short out...I have never had anything even flip a breaker before in my lifetime other than using too much power through a 15amp breaker. So as long as I keep in mind how much power I am drawing through that romex and receptacle it should be totally fine. Here's what it comes down to, all the safety sallies of the world want to avoid risk. Life is risk. I guarantee you have a higher probability of dying in a car crash than I have of being electrocuted. Jerry rigging stuff is how we hillbillies get by! lol I get the same thing from people about not using safety equipment while milling lumber or using the chainsaw. People don't realize the inherent risks they take everyday, but love to point out when I take one. I have never once said this is a how to video, or this is the way you should do your project...I'm just showing what I do. Of all the times someone has jumped on me for doing something unsafe, I have yet to even get a boo boo! lol I have been doing this stuff all my life, and so far so good. Not saying nothing will ever happen, but it's a risk analysis game. the probability of me dying while felling a tree is probably way less than 5%, so it's likely to turn out ok. The same applies to everyday life..every time you eat you have a small percentage of a chance to choke to death, but you weigh the risk and decide it's more likely to turn out ok. I take full responsibility of my own safety, so if I kill myself doing something, it's my own fault. Also, no one else can plug anything in but me, it's obviously private property so they would be trespassing in the first place, and I keep the meter breaker shut off, and padlock the meter box. I am the only one who can access the 200amp main breaker, including the electric coop."

Perfect example how passing new rules will not do anything when those creating the dangers have no regard for any rules to begin with. Those who are left suffering are code abiding electricians and mindful folks. The world should no longer be run like an elementary school where on kid acts up and everyone looses recess.

 

[mbrooke]

Static?

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Auto correct, my bad. Meant to say statistic.

 

[chilada]

It becomes a static to push new safety requirements.

Little do people know most statics come from this:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zpDL16PY9kI

So many code violations... Obviously a handyman hack.....

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[GoldDigger]

Oxygen tanks do not explode (except the way any pressurized tank, including inert gas tanks, can explode from the pressure alone.)

 

[user 100]

Ok, so what about the fella at a welding shop that accidentally leaves his welder on at quittin time. He isn't an electrician, but he did sleep at a Holiday Inn. He put his own cord cap on. The braided wire frays and creates an arc flash. It blows molten copper on a leaky oxygen tank and it explodes. What then?

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Tank won't explode just because it was leaking and then exposed to molten copper. A leaking O2 cylinder could definitely fuel any fire that would have started in the immediate vicinty due to the increased oxygen concentration.