One prediction on electric cars

[Besoeker]

ROI's have context (they all have some type of return in them). you dont buy a car to sit there hoping for its value to go up, like you do with stock.

And that's exactly the point I'm making. It's value doesn't go up.

http://www.entrepreneur.com/encyclopedia/return-on-investment-roi

Return on investment, or ROI, is the most common profitability ratio. There are several ways to determine ROI, but the most frequently used method is to divide net profit by total assets. So if your net profit is $100,000 and your total assets are $300,000, your ROI would be .33 or 33 percent.

Buy a car and sell it some time later and it will not make a profit*.
My current car is coming up three years old. List price was about ?28k - about USD$45k. (Cars here in UK are much more expensive then in USA.)
The retained value after three years is around $16k. No profit. No ROI. A cost. Had that $45k been wisely invested in stocks it now might be worth $60k.

a car returns you a real service for buying and using it,

Yes. But not a profit.

*Unless you are dealing with vintage or veteran motor cars.

This the same make and model of car that I learned to drive in.


Had I kept it and sold it today, my ROI would have been close to 5,000%. Even allowing for inflation in the intervening period.

 

[tom baker]

Here in the US, the Tesla has a range of 250 miles and there are fast charge stations where you can "fill up" at no cost.
http://www.teslamotors.com/supercharger

 

[Besoeker]

Here in the US, the Tesla has a range of 250 miles and there are fast charge stations where you can "fill up" at no cost.
http://www.teslamotors.com/supercharger

There are some anomalies with the Tesla S figures.
Possibly they can be most kindly described as "sales speak."
Disingenuous at least.

Packing up to 85 kWh of power, the Tesla Model is by far the most powerful electric car you can buy today, storing enough power to take the big sedan up to 265 miles per charge

Wait a minute.

storing enough power?
kWh is energy, not power.
The claimed power of the electric drive system is 310kW

At that rate, the 310kW would last 16 minutes.
250 miles in 16 minutes?
900 mph?
Not going to happen given that the declared top speed is 130mph.

So how do they get to the 250 mile mark?
Well, given that most of the power at high speed is required for aerodynamic drag, reducing speed is one obvious option.
Aerodynamic losses are cube law and are not the only losses but ignore the others.

Drop to 55mph and you'd get about 200 miles at a fixed speed on a long straight road. Maybe.
But why would you promote it as a supercar and expect owners do that?

Tesla pulled the same sales stunt with their roadster. The body was that of a Lotus Elise so drag factors are known.

And then there is the price.....over $100,000 in UK.
Don't think I'll be buying one any time soon.

 

[FionaZuppa]

kWh is like Amp-Hour we seen on other batteries like NiCad. Amp and Watt are pretty much the same, rates of energy.

the statement is referring to the battery ability to discharge 85kW/hr

1 horsepower = 0.745699872 kilowatts

so i guess they are saying their batteries offer ~114HP for 1hr, or perhaps 228HP for 0.5hr, either way thats all you get before needing to refill the battery. the discharge rate depends on battery chemistry, etc.

if the car can move at 50mph using just say 25HP it can run for ~4.76hrs = 238miles.

post #41 - yikes, the return i am saying is miles, not $$. you are stuck in finance world, need to jump out of that box. if i "invest" in a quality drill bit how can i determine the ROI for that drill bit? perhaps i look at how many 5/8" holes the bit can do per hour through 1/2" A36 steel plate, thus i can obtain $-per-hole vs other bits that can drill holes, etc.

 

[Besoeker]

kWh is like Amp-Hour

No, it isn't. Apart from anything else, the Ah doesn't take into account volts.
For kWh, you must do so.

we seen on other batteries like NiCad. Amp and Watt are pretty much the same, rates of energy.

Sorry. Not correct. Different units for different things One amp at 20,000V is unlikely to be the same watts at 12V.

the statement is referring to the battery ability to discharge 85kW/hr

Not per hour. For one hour.

1 horsepower = 0.745699872 kilowatts

I'm old enough to have grown up with Imperial, CGS, MKS, and SI.
I just might be aware of the conversion factors. Without having to google them....

if the car can move at 50mph using just say 25HP it can run for ~4.76hrs = 238miles.

But the claimed range is up to 250 miles as I recall.
Would you drive at a steady 50mph for 250 miles on a straight level road?
Assuming you could find one such?

 

[FionaZuppa]

No, it isn't. Apart from anything else, the Ah doesn't take into account volts.
For kWh, you must do so.


Sorry. Not correct. Different units for different things One amp at 20,000V is unlikely to be the same watts at 12V.


Not per hour. For one hour.


I'm old enough to have grown up with Imperial, CGS, MKS, and SI.
I just might be aware of the conversion factors. Without having to google them....


But the claimed range is up to 250 miles as I recall.
Would you drive at a steady 50mph for 250 miles on a straight level road?
Assuming you could find one such?

watt = joule/sec and joule is NM. they are both energy rates (flux), the total energy may in fact be different.

"per hour" is normalized rate, "for one hour" means its dead after 1hr at the rate specified.
and yes, i am familiar with all of the units systems

maybe they drive it on an epoxy roadway that is a 1mi flat with wind blocking devices, then extrapolate the total distance ability. but i do believe they do drive their cars to find max mileage.

 

[GoldDigger]

85kW/hr

When you write it that way, it is a unit that is almost entirely meaningless. And that would be spoken as 85 kilowatts per hour, not 85 kilowatts for one hour.

The only examples I have figured out of a type of situation where something like kW/h is a meaningful and appropriate unit would be something like this:
1. Germany currently has a peak power demand during the day of 100GW, but that is increasing at the rate of 10GW/year.
2. The solar PV installation produces 3kW on a clear day at solar noon, and the production then declines at .7kW/hr until dark.

 

[gadfly56]

watt = joule/sec and joule is NM. they are both energy rates (flux), the total energy may in fact be different.

"per hour" is normalized rate, "for one hour" means its dead after 1hr at the rate specified.
and yes, i am familiar with all of the units systems

maybe they drive it on an epoxy roadway that is a 1mi flat with wind blocking devices, then extrapolate the total distance ability. but i do believe they do drive their cars to find max mileage.

Your are also ignoring the fact that discharge rate affects the total energy available for work. The listed Ah for a battery are typically for a discharge rate of C/10, where C is the listed capacity in Ah. If you go to C/5 or C/2, you'll get less of the "nameplate" capacity from the battery.

 

[Jraef]

Will limit the market penetration. Certainly.

My peeve is lack of fuel redundancy. "Sir, I'm stuck up the road there. May I borrow a bucket of electrons?"

Yes, but it might lead to an entire new batch of "Farmer's daughter" stories!

A salesman was running out of electrons for his EV on a dark and stormy night, so he pulled into a local farm and asked the farmer if he could plug his car into the wall socket over night. Farmer says "Sure think young fella, but the only available outlet is in my daughter's room..." You can fill in the rest.

 

[gar]

140917-2404 EDT

The EPA mileage for vehicles are determined here in our town over some standardized path and driving pattern. I also believe that a programmed dynamometer test is run to provide more consistent driving conditions.

Not every single different vehicle model is tested. Only one model of a group that are deemed to be equivalent may be tested. This got Ford into trouble with customers because a van model on a car chassis had higher wind resistance. The EPA should have separately tested the van because it is quite obviously not equivalent to a car.

.

 

[Besoeker]

watt = joule/sec and joule is NM. they are both energy rates .

Yes, energy rates. Not energy.
The 85kWh is energy. Not an energy rate and not power.
That statement by Tesla is just plain wrong. Sales speak.

"per hour" is normalized rate, "for one hour" means its dead after 1hr at the rate specified.

With respect, you don't quite seem to grasp this.

Perhaps an analogy can help.
If I tell you I drove at 60 miles per hour that tells you absolutely nothing about how far I travelled or for how long.

and yes, i am familiar with all of the units systems

Excellent. That's a plus.
My father, a farmer, would have known how to set his seeder to get so many bushels per acre.
I'm sure you must be instantly conversant with the SI conversion for this.

maybe they drive it on an epoxy roadway that is a 1mi flat with wind blocking devices, then extrapolate the total distance ability. but i do believe they do drive their cars to find max mileage.

Don't misunderstand me. I'm not saying they can't get the range they are claiming. If driven at very modest speeds.
But, on the same page it is touted as a performance car. Ferrari like acceleration rate. It can't provide both.

And then there is that eye-watering price tag - over $100,000 in UK.
That gives you a standard charger.
"Up to 34 miles of range per hour of charge."
So over seven hours for the claimed 250 miles. A supercharger, at an extra $3k and compatible with a 120kW outlet, none of which yet exist here, will get you half charge in 20 minutes it is claimed.

Then there is the tech package.
It includes satnav for Europe, heated folding mirrors, memory seats, etc.
All of which I have on my current car as standard. But you can get on the Tesla for another $5k

In a week or so, we will make a round trip of nearly 1,000 miles. I can fill up at the pump in about ten minutes before we set off and that fill will do the entire journey. On a little over 14 (Imperial) gallons.
If we want to stop on the way, I can ask the system to find the nearest hotel, call it, book it, and get directions to it. All done by voice command. Hands not taken off the steering wheel and, more importantly, eyes not off the road.

No, the Tesla is not for me.

 

[ggunn]

ROI is return on investment.
You invest in say $20,000 of shares and sell them three years later for $30,000, you have a return of $10,000.
"Invest" in a car for $20,000, you're not very likely to be able to sell it three years later for $20,000, far less $30,000.

Cars depreciate. They lose value. You don't normally invest in something you KNOW will lose money.

That's a very narrow view on ROI; if that were all there was to it, no one would ever buy a car. The service that a car performs is worth something to you, and that is the R in ROI. How much that is is very subjective, of course. I always buy used cars, for example, in an effort to maximize my ROI because having the latest and greatest set of wheels is not worth anything to me. YMMV, as they say.

 

[K8MHZ]

In a week or so, we will make a round trip of nearly 1,000 miles. I can fill up at the pump in about ten minutes before we set off and that fill will do the entire journey. On a little over 14 (Imperial) gallons.
If we want to stop on the way, I can ask the system to find the nearest hotel, call it, book it, and get directions to it. All done by voice command. Hands not taken off the steering wheel and, more importantly, eyes not off the road.

No, the Tesla is not for me.

Is this correct?

14 Imp. gallons = 17.5 US gallons.

1000 miles / 17.5 gallons = 57.14 mpg.

Wow! What kind of car gets that kind of mileage?

 

[Besoeker]

That's a very narrow view on ROI; if that were all there was to it, no one would ever buy a car. The service that a car performs is worth something to you, and that is the R in ROI. How much that is is very subjective, of course. I always buy used cars, for example, in an effort to maximize my ROI because having the latest and greatest set of wheels is not worth anything to me. YMMV, as they say.

ROI is quite well defined. I gave a definition and a link earlier. Here's another.

A performance measure used to evaluate the efficiency of an investment or to compare the efficiency of a number of different investments. To calculate ROI, the benefit (return) of an investment is divided by the cost of the investment; the result is expressed as a percentage or a ratio.

 

[Besoeker]

Is this correct?

14 Imp. gallons = 17.5 US gallons.

1000 miles / 17.5 gallons = 57.14 mpg.

Wow! What kind of car gets that kind of mileage?

This:



The 696 is the remaining range.
The 372 is the distance covered since the last refuel.

It's a Honda Accord 2.2 IDTEC Exec.
It's a diesel with a manual six-speed box.
And all the boys toys.

 

[ggunn]

ROI is quite well defined. I gave a definition and a link earlier. Here's another.

As I said, what I think you are not taking into account is what the service rendered by the vehicle is worth to you. You could express it in terms of hard currency, though the exchange rate is subjective.

If you plant and maintain a garden for $1000 all in and it returns food for which you would have to pay $2000 in your local market, then the difference is your ROI even though it didn't put money directly into your pocket. If you buy a car to travel to and from work for $10000, it lasts for 10 years, and it would have cost you $2000 a year to get yourself to work some other way, then the $1000 per year difference is your ROI.

I bought my mom's car for $1500 when she was ready to trade it in eight or nine years ago and I am still driving it. I think I did pretty well, ROI-wise.

 

[petersonra]

so far none of the alternate energy solutions have shown an ROI at all. they all cost more than the equivalent conventional energy. often by 2 or 3 time. the only thing making any of it remotely feasible for the companies selling them is tax subsidies.

no tax subsidy - no alternate energy. and given the actual engineering involved it is unlikely to change any, despite what some people think you can do just by wishing it.

 

[K8MHZ]

This:

View attachment 10991

The 696 is the remaining range.
The 372 is the distance covered since the last refuel.

It's a Honda Accord 2.2 IDTEC Exec.
It's a diesel with a manual six-speed box.
And all the boys toys.

View attachment 10989

Awesome!

I wonder why they don't sell them over here? When I worked for Chrysler (1990) they had a 2.5 supercharged diesel motor for Caravans sold in Europe, but not in the US. I would love to have a motor like that in my Caravan. At approx. the same torque is my 3.3 gas which avg. 20 mpg. Not bad, really, for how big it is (I can carry a 3 x 8 foot table top inside and still get the doors closed. Also, there is enough floor length for me to carry 10 foot sections of conduit.)

 

[FionaZuppa]

so far none of the alternate energy solutions have shown an ROI at all. they all cost more than the equivalent conventional energy. often by 2 or 3 time. the only thing making any of it remotely feasible for the companies selling them is tax subsidies.

no tax subsidy - no alternate energy. and given the actual engineering involved it is unlikely to change any, despite what some people think you can do just by wishing it.

however, there's a devil looming. the oil F$@#!#@#'s suddenly drive up cost of gasoline to a price point that matches what a EV yields you for $-per-mile, then all of a sudden the EV is an "equal" alternative, but it does not solve any energy or pollution issue.

and to note, kWh is a oddly normalized rate of energy, 1kW used for 1hr, W is joule/sec, thus its a rate over time = gross energy consumed.

the poco's dont need the "h" in kWh because kJ/sec would suffice and is a more fundamental description of energy rate. but trying to say to payer that it costs $0.000001 for kJ/sec is a tad non-intuitive for many. if my house sucks in 10kJ in 5sec then how much did it cost? kWh is just normalized and easier to work with for poco's.

 

[petersonra]

however, there's a devil looming. the oil F$@#!#@#'s suddenly drive up cost of gasoline to a price point that matches what a EV yields you for $-per-mile, then all of a sudden the EV is an "equal" alternative, but it does not solve any energy or pollution issue.

and to note, kWh is a oddly normalized rate of energy, 1kW used for 1hr, W is joule/sec, thus its a rate over time = gross energy consumed.

the poco's dont need the "h" in kWh because kJ/sec would suffice and is a more fundamental description of energy rate. but trying to say to payer that it costs $0.000001 for kJ/sec is a tad non-intuitive for many. if my house sucks in 10kJ in 5sec then how much did it cost? kWh is just normalized and easier to work with for poco's.

the problem is that the so called oil crunch is not manifesting itself at all. The stuff gets a little more expensive to drill for but there is still a bunch of it down there to get. New drilling techniques and inflation have brought in a bunch of oil that a decade or two ago was thought too expensive to go get.

there is something like a century's worth of energy available from tar sands and shale oil that is very easy to get and the techniques for getting and refining it are becoming economical. the US has a bunch of coal as well and we have barely begun to exploit it despite several centuries of mining.

natural gas has the potential to replace a bunch of diesel and gasoline, and it is relatively cheap to do so. the payback is often a few months. there are a lot of commercial and industrial entities that are using NG to replace gas and diesel. for some reason despite the cost and other disincentives, propane use is on the rise for transportation as well.