I hadn't been watching this one, and you guys let it get out of hand. Actually, to me the issue is simple.
iwire said:
You can have a very low average with spikes that are very high.
True, but irrelevant. Unless the spike is so high that it causes an immediate melting of the insulation system, then the spike has a limited, and well defined, impact.
I've talked about this issue before, and am too lazy to look up my earlier theses. So I'll just summarize.
It's not the ambient temperature that matters. It's not the temperature rise (due to current flow and I^2R heating) that matters. It's the combination of the two ? the overall temperature of the insulation ? and the time spent at that temperature, that matters. The thing that it matters to is the conductor's insulation system. Higher temperatures degrade the insulation faster, and reduce its useful lifetime. Lower temperatures degrade the insulation slower, and extend its useful lifetime.
The impact can be modeled with the Arrhenius Equation. It's an "exponential equation," a term that means the part about "higher temperatures degrade the insulation faster" has a more dramatic effect than the part about "lower temperatures degrade the insulation slower." For example, if a cable spends one hour at a temperature 10 degrees above normal, it would have to spend two or more hours at a temperature 10 degrees below normal, in order to break even.
But in the vast majority of real-life applications, it will break even. OK, so it gets hot in the attic during summer days. But it cools down at night, and it doesn't get as hot the other three seasons. Keep in mind that in most of the country 30C is very hot, compared to a spring or fall evening, not even to mention winter. If you were to calculate the net impact (using the Arrhenius Equation), I am convinced that the rate of degradation is lower than the table's "base case" (i.e., holding the ambient at a constant 30C forever, and running the maximum allowable current forever).
iwire said:
I firmly believe it will never be the average temperature.
I firmly hope that your prediction does not come true.