Good catch. I was lazy and didn't pull out my copy of the NEC. I used
https://www.mikeholt.com/img/product/pdf/1038225525sample.pdf.
When I look at Chapter 9 table 9, the reactance value for 500 kcmil conductors is 0.048 ohms to neutral per 1000 feet.
The calculation I gave is simplified and doesn't include resistance of the wires, but this is actually a small effect, since for short circuit the transformer is mostly inductive and adding the resistance is a 'vector' addition.
But if I re-run the calc using 0.048 I get:
0.048 * 2500 / (480^2) * 140/2 * 100 = 3.65
Note that this assumes copper conductors in steel conduit.
Assuming utility infinite bus I get:
2500 * 100 / (sqrt(3) * 0.48 * (6.33 + 3.65) = 30100A
Remember that this ignores the utility side impedance, the impedance of the conductors 'upstream' of the first breaker, and the resistance of the 140 foot feeder (which again will be only a small factor).
Tracing this all the way back to the original question, I think you can safely say that the desired new 200A breaker needs to be rated for a fault current of 30kA or needs to be 'series rated' with the 800A breaker to have a fault current rating of 30kA.
-Jon