PV Solar, etc.

[ishium 80439]

I am trying to learn more about this subject and have a few thoughts/ questions. I live in CO, a state that boasts about 300 days of sunshine a year. In addition the major POCO (Xcel) has some strong incentives. putting these two together seems like there might be a burgeoning market for PV here. With the current global political environment I feel that any steps we can make toward alternative energies are good ones.

I think part of the reason there has been little improvement in PV over the past 30 years (as asserted earlier in this thread) is that there was no real incentive to pursue this technology with the cheap energy we had at our disposal. I think we can all agree those days are gone. As more people become interested in this technology, it will only improve. So one question is does it make sense to be an "early adapter" and try to get in on this now and hit the proverbial ground running?

Second, the battery technology has definately come leaps and bounds in 30 years and will doubtless continue to improve. This will make these systems more attractive to people trying to minimize their grid ties and/or dwellings that don't have grid access.

Most importantly does anyone have experience selling/ installing these systems and is it profitable? It seems that a home or business owner willing to undertake such a discretionary project won't balk as much at price as Mrs. Jones timing how long the guys were gone for lunch while installing some cans in her basement.

 

[dereckbc]

I think part of the reason there has been little improvement in PV over the past 30 years (as asserted earlier in this thread) is that there was no real incentive to pursue this technology with the cheap energy we had at our disposal. I think we can all agree those days are gone.

Maybe not there are dozens of nuclear power plants in the works right now here in the US, and another 40 or 50 permits to be approved in 2008. With a generating cost of 2-cents per KWH, cheap electric is here to stay IMO. With payback time of 20 year to never in solar PV, I believe it will remain a niche market in the USA.

Second, the battery technology has definitely come leaps and bounds in 30 years and will doubtless continue to improve. This will make these systems more attractive to people trying to minimize their grid ties and/or dwellings that don't have grid access.

Well I work in the Telecom industry and have designed battery plants for 30-years and I have not witnessed any "leap and bounds" improvement in battery technology. We still buy and use the same lead-acid types developed 100-years ago.

There have been improvements in densities, like Lithium-Ion, but those batteries degrade about 10% in capacity per year under idea conditions and faster in less than idea conditions. So if the consumer has to replace batteries every few years means there is no payback ever, and even a larger environmental problem with manufacture and disposal.

I have lead-acid batteries that have been in service for 50-years and still load test @ 90% capacity. However they are very expensive and require monthly maintenance which is beyond most consumers capabilities.


With that said Solar only makes since IMO in limited geographical and political climates, Southern California being one of them, but CA is very unique.

• CA home prices often exceed $1M so the added cost of $50K+ isn't that much compared to the home price.
• Politically CA is very liberal where the tax payers pay the homeowner $7K, and the state requires the utility to pay another $3K in addition to the federal rebate.
• CA KWH rates are the highest in the world of around 50-cents, and the state requires the utilities to pay the homeowner around 40-cents for every kwh the generate in excess. This makes payback time reasonable.
• So Cal has plenty of sunshine and makes the PV efficient. Only place in the US PV is efficient is the desert southwest. The further north and east you go, the efficiency drops dramatically from sun angle, humidity, and cloud cover.

I am not sure about CO, but the state government may be as liberal as CA when it comes to rebates and utility regulations to make that state a niche market for you to pursue.

 

[kkwong]

I'll keep my tirade contricted to the electrical side so as not to irritate too many potential PV installers; in CA we've seen 30,000 systems go in and with the Governator's plans to have a million solar-augmented homes in the state and with rebates it makes it tempting for the HO as well as business owners to install these problems.

 

[BretHeilig]

I've seen a lot of misconceptions in these replies here...

I'm a foreman for a Bay Area PV contractor. I'll put my points in bullet form for readability.

1) Electricity here costs 14 cents / kwh

2) The state subsidy is currently $2.50/watt for -residential- customers. That usually works out to about 1/4-1/3 of the system's total cost.

3) The line is out the door for these things. You can sell much, much more than you can build. Our company more than doubled in size last year. That type of growth is typical.

4)The useful life of a pv array is about 30 years, and the payback period, at our electrical rates, -without the subsidy-, is between 8-12 years. The calculus is obvious to most customers: if you have the cash, or if you can get the favorable loan terms, buy the system. That is why the rebate money for -commercial- customers, several billion dollars which was supposed to last ten years, is already almost gone after one year and change.

5) Commercially available PV modules now have efficiencies up to 21%.

Solar, of course, is too small scale to be "the answer". But it is part of an overall picture of economic viability.

 

[Energy-Miser]

I've seen a lot of misconceptions in these replies here...

I'm a foreman for a Bay Area PV contractor. I'll put my points in bullet form for readability.

1) Electricity here costs 14 cents / kwh

2) The state subsidy is currently $2.50/watt for -residential- customers. That usually works out to about 1/4-1/3 of the system's total cost.

3) The line is out the door for these things. You can sell much, much more than you can build. Our company more than doubled in size last year. That type of growth is typical.

4)The useful life of a pv array is about 30 years, and the payback period, at our electrical rates, -without the subsidy-, is between 8-12 years. The calculus is obvious to most customers: if you have the cash, or if you can get the favorable loan terms, buy the system. That is why the rebate money for -commercial- customers, several billion dollars which was supposed to last ten years, is already almost gone after one year and change.

5) Commercially available PV modules now have efficiencies up to 21%.

Solar, of course, is too small scale to be "the answer". But it is part of an overall picture of economic viability.

Makes me want to move to Ca. I love this stuff. e/m