wind power

[petersonra]

A while ago there was some debate about the cost and long term viablity of wind power. My little brother is an economist who specializes in dealing with the electric utility industry. So I sent an email off to him and asked him what he thought. This is what he said.

Well that's a loaded question! It depends on what you mean. I did a study for XXXXXXXXXXX in 2007 and claimed that less than 20kW is about $2400-$3000/kW, for the larger units you might get that down to between $1000/kW and $2000/kW. The variable cost are not zero, however. They can be as much as 2 cents a kWh. Also, as you know, these resources are not dispatchable by the system operator, given the intermittent nature of the resources the cost could be anywhere from 9 cents/kWh to 23 cents/kWh. Ah but there is more, the system as it is designed now is a "dumb" system. That is, there is really no way to use load as a resource (e.g., VARs) Without that ability, most system operators claim that they cannot handle more than about 15-20 percent wind on the system (without expensive upgrades to existing traditional generation or the building of new generation to back up the wind generation). In fact TX had a near collapse of the system in 2007 when the wind just stopped blowing for about an hour! Now you can see why the issue is so murky.

wow. power that requires near 100% backup capacity, and costs 2 to 5 times what other sources cost. what a bargain.

BTW, he is a liberal democrat.

 

[LarryFine]

BTW, he is a liberal democrat.

"Is there another kind?" ~ Jack Nicholson as Col. Nathan R Jessup in A Few Good Men

 

[hardworkingstiff]

Bob, what does lil brother say is the future of electricity?

 

[dereckbc]

Well I have been designing solar power PV systems for a few years now for the telecom sector for remote cell sites, moderate a alternative energy forum, and live in TX the largest renewable energy producer state in the US (wind)

Asides from the cost being unjustifiable, the real problem with solar and wind is for every watt of renewable energy you put online, you have to build a watt standing by in a moments notice.

This is not theory but hard lessons learned from experience. For example on Feb 27, 2008 in TX the winds failed when a cold front moved through the area causing a huge blackout in various parts of the state and in a little city called Dallas leaving some very large customers red faced with substantial losses in production. It took controllers several hours to bring conventional boilers up to temperature to replace the shortage in power production.

I hope this does not take a wrong turn, but what really irritates me we have the technology and fuel supply right now to solve all our electrical needs and all our light transportation needs right now with domestically produced cheap clean nuclear power. Problem is politics, and unfounded fear. For example the problem with nuclear waste is mostly made up and political. Our US government does not allow spent fuel rods to be reprocessed and the unused fuel reclaimed like say France does. I mean we have enough fuel setting around collecting dust in spent rods right now to supply all our energy needs for the next twenty years and we refuse to use it.

 

[brantmacga]

My little brother. . . .

as a "little brother" myself, I would like to say that is a term I think all of us "younger brother's" resent.


I prefer "the more handsome brother".

or "the taller brother".

or "the one who didn't have to endure the first-born overprotectiveness of mommy and daddy, and by the time I reached 16, curfews were a thing of the past".

 

[cadpoint]

What does the last line have to do with what you asked?

These guys by title crunch numbers that we live with / through /and most times don't think about, bottom line is their realist and their work is based on numbers.

Frankly I enjoyed your thread and their statement till your political statement... :\

Here better yet, let them see your thread via mail, I mailed my Conversation with a business man as presented and everything here, you don't want to know the response in either case! JMO

 

[hardworkingstiff]

What does the last line have to do with what you asked?

These guys by title crunch numbers that we live with / through /and most times don't think about, bottom line is their realist and their work is based on numbers.

Frankly I enjoyed your thread and their statement till your political statement... :\

Here better yet, let them see your thread via mail, I mailed my Conversation with a business man as presented and everything here, you don't want to know the response in either case! JMO

CAD, uh, what are you talking about?

 

[brantmacga]

CAD, uh, what are you talking about?

i think me and my buddy cad might be in the same state of mind right now.

*cough* dewars

 

[Besoeker]

Asides from the cost being unjustifiable, the real problem with solar and wind is for every watt of renewable energy you put online, you have to build a watt standing by in a moments notice.

Or have existing conventional capacity on line running as so-called spinning reserve.
I'm a subscribed member of a sustainable energy group and I get some quite interesting articles and technical papers. There was one a while back on the intermittent nature of renewables. The conclusion that not more than 20% can come from intermittent sources. One of the reasons given was that, for anything above that level, the pollution produced by the conventional spinning reserve needed running at low efficiencies would exceed the pollution saved by the renewables.

I hope this does not take a wrong turn, but what really irritates me we have the technology and fuel supply right now to solve all our electrical needs and all our light transportation needs right now with domestically produced cheap clean nuclear power. Problem is politics, and unfounded fear.

We have a similar situation here in UK.
Many of our aging Nuclear reactors are being decommissioned. Of the remaining 19 here, all but five will be shut down within the next decade.
Politics and fear as you say.
The irony is that we import electricity from France via the Cross Channel HVDC link - and France is about 75% Nuclear.

 

[charlie]

Don't let this get into the political arena. The statements that democrats are liberal or that republicans are conservative are factual most of the time but are also inflammatory. I don't believe there was any intent to start any arguments so let's keep it that way. :smile:

 

[charlie]

. . . government does not allow spent fuel rods to be reprocessed and the unused fuel reclaimed like say France does. . .

With a little modification, we could also build the fast breeder reactor since it is now old technology. Of course we have to get rid of the radioactive waste. :smile:

 

[winnie]

I believe that a significant part of developing non-dispatchable power sources will be adding dispatchable _loads_ to the grid.

For example, if the wind stops blowing you could shut off storage water heaters and non-critical air conditioning.

Of course, this sort of 'smart metering' and 'demand management' is not trivial, and would require significant development. A realistic accounting of non-dispatchable power sources would include a large portion of the costs of adding these features to the grid. (IMHO not the total cost, because these same features would also help with conventional power sources and the non-dispatchable loads that are currently attached to the grid.)

With respect to nuclear power, I do not believe that it is fair to say that the only problem is politics and _unfounded_ fear. IMHO there are very real 'human nature' issues involved here. I agree that we have a handle on what would work technologically, if we could handle the human nature; but the human nature is not to be ignored.

IMHO the best technology (isolated from human nature problems) to deal with nuclear waste is reprocessing, using various reactor types to do things like produce more fuel and burn actinides. The problem that I see is that the core technology used for reprocessing fuel is what you need 'weponize' these materials. I would not call fear of nuclear proliferation 'unfounded'.

-Jon

 

[petersonra]

Don't let this get into the political arena. The statements that democrats are liberal or that republicans are conservative are factual most of the time but are also inflammatory. I don't believe there was any intent to start any arguments so let's keep it that way. :smile:

There was no such intent on my part. It was more along the lines of pointing out how hard facts caused him to come to a different conclusion than his political ideology would have liked. That is extremely different for most people.

This is much like the problem with dealing with the oil shortage (not that there really is one). The green house gas nonsense has pushed government into exotic energy technologies that will probably never come to be, while ignoring a technology that has potential immediately. CNG is something that just about all internal combustion engines can be converted to very rapidly. Its an abundant and very clean fuel. Yet the political ideology of global warming makes it unpalatable to the far left that now makes the decisions.

 

[ohm]

I believe that a significant part of developing non-dispatchable power sources will be adding dispatchable _loads_ to the grid.

For example, if the wind stops blowing you could shut off storage water heaters and non-critical air conditioning.

Of course, this sort of 'smart metering' and 'demand management' is not trivial, and would require significant development. A realistic accounting of non-dispatchable power sources would include a large portion of the costs of adding these features to the grid. (IMHO not the total cost, because these same features would also help with conventional power sources and the non-dispatchable loads that are currently attached to the grid.)

With respect to nuclear power, I do not believe that it is fair to say that the only problem is politics and _unfounded_ fear. IMHO there are very real 'human nature' issues involved here. I agree that we have a handle on what would work technologically, if we could handle the human nature; but the human nature is not to be ignored.

IMHO the best technology (isolated from human nature problems) to deal with nuclear waste is reprocessing, using various reactor types to do things like produce more fuel and burn actinides. The problem that I see is that the core technology used for reprocessing fuel is what you need 'weponize' these materials. I would not call fear of nuclear proliferation 'unfounded'.

-Jon

Shedding loads (water heaters, A/C etc.) need not be a smart grid. It could be as simple as each user installing a contactor that drops non-critical loads at a certain drop in line voltage. Like we did on submarines.

 

[petersonra]

Shedding loads (water heaters, A/C etc.) need not be a smart grid. It could be as simple as each user installing a contactor that drops non-critical loads at a certain drop in line voltage. Like we did on submarines.

my a/c compressor has some kind of doohickey on it that can shut it off remotely if there is a need to conserve electricity.

i get a $10 or $15 a month credit for having it. have no idea if it was ever even used.

i

 

[ohm]

my a/c compressor has some kind of doohickey on it that can shut it off remotely if there is a need to conserve electricity.

i get a $10 or $15 a month credit for having it. have no idea if it was ever even used.

i

Good idea. A large room/house is a great energy storage device for heat (or cold), chances are you can hardly notice if the duty cycle of your compressor is changed, but it sure helps the power company adjust for load swings.

It not only saves you electricity it also could save your compressor. Two common things that can ruin motors: low voltage and high voltage.

 

[Besoeker]

Don't let this get into the political arena. The statements that democrats are liberal or that republicans are conservative are factual most of the time but are also inflammatory. I don't believe there was any intent to start any arguments so let's keep it that way. :smile:

My mention of politics was just that. Not what side of the house they sit on.
It isn't a political debate - more a comment on how government works in general.

In UK, successive governments (of both flavors) have sat on their hands so long over the Nuclear issue that the "power crunch" is inevitable.
This has been widely covered in the technical press here for some years now.
I think one of the problems is that Nuclear has been seen as unpalatable by the electorate - or maybe just perceived that way by the political establishment.
The gestation period for new build nuclear is longer than the period between general elections here, so maybe no government would want to risk making an unpopular decision that would get them booted out of office.

For whatever reason, until recently, no new sanctions to build nuclear had been given for about 30 years.

 

[ohm]

My mention of politics was just that. Not what side of the house they sit on.
It isn't a political debate - more a comment on how government works in general.

In UK, successive governments (of both flavors) have sat on their hands so long over the Nuclear issue that the "power crunch" is inevitable.
This has been widely covered in the technical press here for some years now.
I think one of the problems is that Nuclear has been seen as unpalatable by the electorate - or maybe just perceived that way by the political establishment.
The gestation period for new build nuclear is longer than the period between general elections here, so maybe no government would want to risk making an unpopular decision that would get them booted out of office.

For whatever reason, until recently, no new sanctions to build nuclear had been given for about 30 years.

The nuclear age got off to a bad start, everyone is afraid of it. But really, it's the safest form of energy we have. And, it doesn't cost more than another nickel to store and guard 1000 tons of nuclear waste than 2000 tons, if you don't feel like reusing it.

 

[dereckbc]

my a/c compressor has some kind of doohickey on it that can shut it off remotely if there is a need to conserve electricity.

i get a $10 or $15 a month credit for having it. have no idea if it was ever even used. i

Actually that technology has been around for quite some time, and implemented by many POCO's since the early 80's under various market names.

It is very simple the POCO installes a radio reciever on your compressor unit that opens the compressor contol circuit shutting off your compressor. When I worked at PSO in Tulsa OK the program was called Good-Cents, and during peak times the POCO would interupt your Ac unit 15 minutes out of every hour in a rotation around the city. It allowed then to shed enough load during peak hours so they did not have to build extra generating capacity or purchase from the grid at much higher prices.

 

[don_resqcapt19]

Shedding loads (water heaters, A/C etc.) need not be a smart grid. It could be as simple as each user installing a contactor that drops non-critical loads at a certain drop in line voltage. Like we did on submarines.

There is working being done to tie the drop out of loads to the frequency of the grid as that is a better indication of the total grid load than a local voltage change.