mkgrady
Senior Member
- Location
- Massachusetts
I am no expert on solar power and I'm not even a student of it. I really know very little about it. I do have the impression that in its current form it is a waste of money if your goal is to reduce your electricity costs. Does anybody disagree?
I realize to improve the technology there has to be a market for solar and that market exists because governments are willing to provide tax credits to those that install solar systems. But it seems like with the current technology there is never a return on investment. I have heard calculations on a particular system that would pay for itself in 20 years and then the power is free. Does anybody believe this?
I'm thinking about the costs that typically don't come to mind when people do the math. For instance, if the roof is only going to last 20 years, what about the cost of replacing a roof with all those panels sitting on top. If you were to have a battery connected to store power, I would imagine the batteries would have to be replaced every few years. Maintenance costs seem like a real unknown. And if the system has a break even cost after 20 years, 20 years from now you will probably have already replaced the system with something more effecient, so you never realize the pay back. Even inflation and the time value of money should be considered in the analysis. For instance, if I invest 20K in a solar system and the payback is 20 years, I should compare that investment with putting 20K in a mutual fund investment that would likely quadruple in 20 years (using 7% gaine per year).
For all of the above reasons I have real doubts about solar having any real value in its present form. If my ignorance of solar is showing please let me know what I don't know.
I realize to improve the technology there has to be a market for solar and that market exists because governments are willing to provide tax credits to those that install solar systems. But it seems like with the current technology there is never a return on investment. I have heard calculations on a particular system that would pay for itself in 20 years and then the power is free. Does anybody believe this?
I'm thinking about the costs that typically don't come to mind when people do the math. For instance, if the roof is only going to last 20 years, what about the cost of replacing a roof with all those panels sitting on top. If you were to have a battery connected to store power, I would imagine the batteries would have to be replaced every few years. Maintenance costs seem like a real unknown. And if the system has a break even cost after 20 years, 20 years from now you will probably have already replaced the system with something more effecient, so you never realize the pay back. Even inflation and the time value of money should be considered in the analysis. For instance, if I invest 20K in a solar system and the payback is 20 years, I should compare that investment with putting 20K in a mutual fund investment that would likely quadruple in 20 years (using 7% gaine per year).
For all of the above reasons I have real doubts about solar having any real value in its present form. If my ignorance of solar is showing please let me know what I don't know.