July 06 Tariffs.

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GoldDigger said:
Politics warning. The content has been skirting the edge here and there.

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We really aren't supposed to talk about how long skirts should be here either:D

Really surprised it hasn't gone too political yet, I get original intent, but too easy of a topic to not get into political discussion.
 
kwired said:
We really aren't supposed to talk about how long skirts should be here either:D

Really surprised it hasn't gone too political yet, I get original intent, but too easy of a topic to not get into political discussion.
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well, nationally we *are* in sort of a politically charged atmosphere, it seems.
let's set that aside for a moment. mods, if someone goes on a political tear,
can you just purge the offending remarks and let the thread live? the information
here is important to all of us. we are all in the same boat.

most of us, one on one, tend to want the same things in life.
politics is where we prove we can't agree on how to get there.
so, we should table that discussion here.

i stopped by my wholesale house today and chatted with the owner.
the following is a bipartisan reflection on the electrical industry,
based on ground truth for this part of the country:

his sales for the last three months, are off 90%.
more ominously, his accounts receivable are really slow.

my percentage of business relative to this time last year is off 50%.
my best accounts, which have always been punctual, are not.

the turndown has been the last three months. like a light switch.
both our phones just stopped.

now, his numbers could be up if he had some large jobs running,
as a $1m electrical supply for him is still a single lighting cert for me.

i've also looked at the total number of lighting certs being done, to
see if it was just me. it's not. my fees are middle of the road for
what i do.

so, we have two metrics here. total number of jobs, and gross
material used:

jobs are off 50%, material is off 90%.
turndown began three months ago, sudden onset.
payment for services is sucky in both courts.

my conjecture here is that the well has run dry, and inertia
has finally expired. this is looking like 2009, but worse to me.

what do you guys think? what do YOUR numbers look like?
is this a local thing to california, or nationwide?

mods, please don't kill this thread. thanks.
 
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Fulthrotl said:
what do you guys think? what do YOUR numbers look like?
is this a local thing to california, or nationwide?

mods, please don't kill this thread. thanks.
Click to expand...

Hmm Im actually surprised to hear that. I thought things were booming? What do others think? Last July I paid off my mortgage and my truck. I had been waiting for that for years and was planning to take some time off. Well, the last 10 months have been the craziest I have ever had. Ive been saying no to stuff. Not even throwing out a "I dont want to do it price".
 
Fulthrotl said:
well, nationally we *are* in sort of a politically charged atmosphere, it seems.
let's set that aside for a moment. mods, if someone goes on a political tear,
can you just purge the offending remarks and let the thread live? the information
here is important to all of us. we are all in the same boat.

most of us, one on one, tend to want the same things in life.
politics is where we prove we can't agree on how to get there.
so, we should table that discussion here.

i stopped by my wholesale house today and chatted with the owner.
the following is a bipartisan reflection on the electrical industry,
based on ground truth for this part of the country:

his sales for the last three months, are off 90%.
more ominously, his accounts receivable are really slow.

my percentage of business relative to this time last year is off 50%.
my best accounts, which have always been punctual, are not.

the turndown has been the last three months. like a light switch.
both our phones just stopped.

now, his numbers could be up if he had some large jobs running,
as a $1m electrical supply for him is still a single lighting cert for me.

i've also looked at the total number of lighting certs being done, to
see if it was just me. it's not. my fees are middle of the road for
what i do.

so, we have two metrics here. total number of jobs, and gross
material used:

jobs are off 50%, material is off 90%.
turndown began three months ago, sudden onset.
payment for services is sucky in both courts.

my conjecture here is that the well has run dry, and inertia
has finally expired. this is looking like 2009, but worse to me.

what do you guys think? what do YOUR numbers look like?
is this a local thing to california, or nationwide?

mods, please don't kill this thread. thanks.
Click to expand...
It trickles into different areas at different rates for different reasons. Something like increase in steel prices does hit pretty much the entire country at once, but effects different people in different ways.

Back when corn prices were at their highest point ever - some of my biggest clients are farmers - I was doing fairly well as they had plenty of work for me to do. Many people on this forum from other parts of the country - especially those that mostly only do residential construction were complaining how consumer spending was on a decline and they didn't have as much to do as they did a few years before. then when they were all optimistic that things were picking up again I felt that things were slowing down some for me. Now that corn price is down - I have some storage bins to wire up - farmer still has some old crop and needs room for this year's crops. Had to pile some corn on the ground last year. Hoping he can get better price for what he has been holding onto.

Though I was a kid back in late 70's early 80's it did same thing I was told. Things were going good here in the farm communities when rest of country economy sort of tanked, but when everyone else recovered it tanked here.
 
Fulthrotl said:
well, nationally we *are* in sort of a politically charged atmosphere, it seems.
let's set that aside for a moment. mods, if someone goes on a political tear,
can you just purge the offending remarks and let the thread live? the information
here is important to all of us. we are all in the same boat.

most of us, one on one, tend to want the same things in life.
politics is where we prove we can't agree on how to get there.
so, we should table that discussion here.

i stopped by my wholesale house today and chatted with the owner.
the following is a bipartisan reflection on the electrical industry,
based on ground truth for this part of the country:

his sales for the last three months, are off 90%.
more ominously, his accounts receivable are really slow.

my percentage of business relative to this time last year is off 50%.
my best accounts, which have always been punctual, are not.

the turndown has been the last three months. like a light switch.
both our phones just stopped.

now, his numbers could be up if he had some large jobs running,
as a $1m electrical supply for him is still a single lighting cert for me.

i've also looked at the total number of lighting certs being done, to
see if it was just me. it's not. my fees are middle of the road for
what i do.

so, we have two metrics here. total number of jobs, and gross
material used:

jobs are off 50%, material is off 90%.
turndown began three months ago, sudden onset.
payment for services is sucky in both courts.

my conjecture here is that the well has run dry, and inertia
has finally expired. this is looking like 2009, but worse to me.

what do you guys think? what do YOUR numbers look like?
is this a local thing to california, or nationwide?

mods, please don't kill this thread. thanks.
Click to expand...

I do NOT want to delve into the why's and wherefore's, but if you listen to the pundits California has been bleeding people and jobs steadily for the last 3-5 years, even into the current (somewhat rocky and uneven) recovery. Official records show growth, but at an anemic 0.7%, basically the same as the US in general. If commercial real estate is suddenly looking at high vacancy rates due to overly optimistic predictions, things could get really ugly.
 
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Like kwired, the majority of my business is agriculture related. With the niche market that I am in, I was never affected one bit by this last recession. The domestic well drilling and pump business suffered greatly. In Washington state we went from 10,000 water wells drilled per year to about 2,500. It looks like we will be back up to 4,000 to 5,000 water wells this year.

I really figured that the farm economy would have slowed down by now, corn, wheat, hay prices are all way down. Im busier now than I have ever been. If I could find qualified people, I could easily double my business.

i have thought about posting , but have been hesitant to, about my perspective as the son of a farmer, of the sugar subsidies and tariffs. If it’s not deemed too political and if anyone is interested,I’d love to give you all my perspective.
 
kwired said:
It trickles into different areas at different rates for different reasons. Something like increase in steel prices does hit pretty much the entire country at once, but effects different people in different ways.

Back when corn prices were at their highest point ever - some of my biggest clients are farmers - I was doing fairly well as they had plenty of work for me to do. Many people on this forum from other parts of the country - especially those that mostly only do residential construction were complaining how consumer spending was on a decline and they didn't have as much to do as they did a few years before. then when they were all optimistic that things were picking up again I felt that things were slowing down some for me. Now that corn price is down - I have some storage bins to wire up - farmer still has some old crop and needs room for this year's crops. Had to pile some corn on the ground last year. Hoping he can get better price for what he has been holding onto.

Though I was a kid back in late 70's early 80's it did same thing I was told. Things were going good here in the farm communities when rest of country economy sort of tanked, but when everyone else recovered it tanked here.
Click to expand...

Ditto, except for being a kid back when.

Other than one good sized Ag project that is starting in a bad way, we are day to day.
 
electrofelon said:
Hmm Im actually surprised to hear that. I thought things were booming? What do others think? Last July I paid off my mortgage and my truck. I had been waiting for that for years and was planning to take some time off. Well, the last 10 months have been the craziest I have ever had. Ive been saying no to stuff. Not even throwing out a "I dont want to do it price".
Click to expand...

it's been booming for the last 6-7 years
market tripled
unemployment halved
taxes lowest in the last 30 years
growth rate avg 2-3%

I made more money in 2010-2012 than I made in the previous 6 years
bought my AMG C63C cash, mortgage paid off for years, pumping money in my ira's and 401
imo the last 6 months have been flat due to uncertainties in policy
 
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