Don't know about the reduction of fires, and I know there are those here that unabashedly are haters, I do know that the AFCI will show quickly an issue that does lead to heating and fires, loose connections. I've had many many calls where a GC has done electrical installation and complaining about the AFCI tripping "for no reason". When I investigate, 99.8% I find loose terminations on receptacle or even breakers, the other .2% I've found a bad fixture and 1 time a finish nail pierce the wire. Made the repair and they stopped tripping. So I dont know.