bphgravity
Senior Member
- Location
- Florida
The problem with that for me is that you represent the industry, and I have a serious mistrust of any information from that source on the AFCI issue.
The industry has given me NO reason to believe anything they say about AFCIs.
This is like a study on Oscam's razor. "The principle states that among competing hypotheses that predict equally well, the one with the fewest assumptions should be selected. Other, more complicated solutions may ultimately prove to provide better predictions, but—in the absence of differences in predictive ability—the fewer assumptions that are made, the better."
One the one hand, we have NEMA, UL, the CPSC, CMP-2, and host of other AFCI advocates all conspiring together to create a product and mandate to use that product, which doesn't even work just so the manufacturers of that product are able to profit from the sale of that product.
Or...
These same entities are all working together to find a solution to a serous problem by engaging in the exact same activities that have developed and produced every other code required or permitted electrical products that solve other similar and serious problems.
There isn't a single product standard that hasn't needed to be modified, amended, and supplemented at some point in the history of the products development. And every single product has performance gaps, that when discovered, need to addressed by industry to be overcome or corrected. The evolution of AFCIs is rather typical and unremarkable when looking at the big picture. Compared to a few other technologies like PV or EVSE, the development of AFCIs is quite stable and modest.
As far as arcing and fires, there is little evidence that they cause many fires, but there is a huge amount of information that shows joule heating at poor connections do cause many fires, and even UL says that AFCI devices cannot detect joule heating (also known as a poor connection, a high resistance connection or a glowing connection).
As you know, this particular issue is still under investigation and a solution will be found. I think the most likely outcome will be another enhancement to the current generation of AFCI devices and a modification to the existing testing procedures or perhaps the addition of a another test or even series of tests. Or, it could end up being another supplement to the current standard resulting in a whole new generation of AFCI devices. Maybe something like "Combination Plus AFCIs". No body has their head buried in the sand or are pretending to not see this giant elephant in the room. Product engineers are losing sleep every night over this problem...